Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x01e084e85e66ab6ae5560612563dc92b9b414163c9dbfbc4c236ef0e4ca942da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 5,996$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.15 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed Yes | 6c | 2,566$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.24 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 10c | 1,676$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.06 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 11c | 1,427$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.33 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 12c | 908.39$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 80c | 676$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.64 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbad…8426backed Yes | 13c | 593.42$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 2c | 551.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 10c | 531.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 10c | 496.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 484.96$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.09 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 69c | 475.8$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 28c | 463.22$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 444.82$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.38 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ead…106cbacked Yes | 8c | 371.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 31c | 359.93$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.86 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 14c | 350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 68c | 344.48$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.7 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 328.76$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.15 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 9c | 325.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 79c | 321.42$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.5 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…42e0backed No | 78c | 306.35$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 119 | 47.1%56 W · 63 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…2260backed Yes | 42c | 293.52$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 281.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 80c | 280$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.72 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 37c | 235.4$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.26 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked Yes | 5c | 230.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 19c | 220.05$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 19c | 219.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 28c | 218.78$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.74 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 218.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Yes | 17c | 182.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 90 | 17.8%16 W · 74 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 31c | 162.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f0…fa62backed Yes | 8c | 157.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.15per pick | 27cpaid | +366.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 27c | 153.74$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.74 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 151.99$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.69 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 25c | 149.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3032…99e7backed No | 68c | 146.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 145.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 17c | 141.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 36c | 140$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac00…372fbacked Yes | 19c | 139.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 36c | 138.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 21c | 131.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.06 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 35c | 129.57$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 19c | 125.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 33c | 114$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 19c | 110.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 14c | 108.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92ad…a084backed Yes | 37c | 108.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efe…b050backed Yes | 32c | 106.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba47…df90backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4363…c153backed Yes | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf53…1720backed Yes | 18c | 97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 27c | 95.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 73 | 13.7%10 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 21c | 93.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 29c | 92.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 91.9$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 28c | 91.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 31c | 90$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 20c | 84.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes | 16c | 83.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 42c | 82.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce05…ff90backed Yes | 36c | 78.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 240 | 53.3%128 W · 112 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 76.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.39 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee24…bd15backed Yes | 25c | 75.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 66 | 36.4%24 W · 42 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f22…db25backed Yes | 15c | 71.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 63c | 70.53$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 70c | 69.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 16c | 66.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…393ebacked No | 71c | 66.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 67c | 64.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed Yes | 19c | 64.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e9…4810backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 67c | 58.87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 34c | 58.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca77…e487backed Yes | 41c | 50.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 50.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked No | 60c | 49.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked No | 68c | 49.98$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 26c | 46.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 70c | 45.6$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc53a…625fbacked No | 65c | 43.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 25c | 43.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed Yes | 36c | 42.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 41.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 30c | 41.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 34c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…d321backed No | 70c | 35.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…2554backed Yes | 36c | 35.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 80c | 34.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 74c | 33.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or higher on May 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.