TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,784
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$46,209

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,784 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes4c5,996$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.1557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes6c2,566$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.2468645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes10c1,676$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.0634624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes11c1,427$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3342130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes12c908.39$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.685427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c676$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.645,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbad…8426backed Yes13c593.42$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid+20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes2c551.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0311227.7%31 W · 81 L+12.3wins+0.11per pick17cpaid+175.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes10c531.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.991,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Yes10c496.95$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0176924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No75c484.96$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.092,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No69c475.8$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.858,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked Yes28c463.22$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.729520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No69c444.82$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.384,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ead…106cbacked Yes8c371.5$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes31c359.93$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.861,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes14c350$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2895933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No68c344.48$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.799963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No79c328.76$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.151,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes9c325.64$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.562,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c321.42$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.54,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf225…42e0backed No78c306.35$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.411947.1%56 W · 63 L+8.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+17.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb1f5…2260backed Yes42c293.52$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes34c281.74$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0317,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No80c280$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.723,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes37c235.4$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.262,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1044…8cebbacked Yes5c230.5$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.612917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-64.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes19c220.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.715,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes19c219.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.55,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes28c218.78$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7420534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes29c218.35$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.367,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes17c182.09$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.489017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes31c162.21$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507328.8%21 W · 52 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f0…fa62backed Yes8c157.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.843441.2%14 W · 20 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+366.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa498…727bbacked Yes27c153.74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.749728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No68c151.99$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.6989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes25c149.09$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.632,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3032…99e7backed No68c146.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.04580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes7c145.5$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.461,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes17c141.13$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6716144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x64a4…c103backed Yes36c140$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.211038.2%42 W · 68 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xac00…372fbacked Yes19c139.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7554…0b84backed Yes36c138.08$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5014040.7%57 W · 83 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes21c131.7$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0611438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No72c130$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.42,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes35c129.57$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes19c125.28$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0212,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes33c114$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1656434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes19c110.96$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.113,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes14c108.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1535133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…a084backed Yes37c108.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3efe…b050backed Yes32c106.91$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba47…df90backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4363…c153backed Yes31c99.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf53…1720backed Yes18c97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.414139%16 W · 25 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed Yes27c95.6$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.497313.7%10 W · 63 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-68%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes21c93.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x261e…c09fbacked Yes29c92.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7911835.6%42 W · 76 L+0.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c91.9$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.025,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes28c91.33$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.649634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes31c90$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.83938.5%15 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+29.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes20c84.23$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1727421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked Yes16c83.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.558337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe06d…ac24backed Yes42c82.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.854032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed Yes36c78.24$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.524053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No63c76.26$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.392,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee24…bd15backed Yes25c75.85$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.246636.4%24 W · 42 L+3.4wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+74.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f22…db25backed Yes15c71.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.351330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No63c70.53$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.022,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No70c69.99$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.151,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes16c66.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.624129.3%12 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6476…393ebacked No71c66.41$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.411181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.13per pick69cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No67c64.91$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2733567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed Yes19c64.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9981756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e9…4810backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes20c60$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.29346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No67c58.87$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.662,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes34c58.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7112…6d11backed No78c51$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2234970.2%245 W · 104 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca77…e487backed Yes41c50.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c50.11$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.593,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6634934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x558f…1a56backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.554867.3%369 W · 179 L+26.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked No60c49.99$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked No68c49.98$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9944646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…a526backed Yes26c46.02$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1215466.9%103 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+4.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No70c45.6$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8119353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No76c44$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5243859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc53a…625fbacked No65c43.8$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.338257.3%47 W · 35 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes25c43.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34f4…c629backed Yes36c42.73$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.362161.9%13 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes34c41.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes30c41.21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4165934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes34c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.466735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.071,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbe7…33d8backed Yes32c40$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.81040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eee…d321backed No70c35.92$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8b…2554backed Yes36c35.8$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8970%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No80c34.88$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0839158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No74c33.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7281848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.