TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,786
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,861

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,786 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c1,897$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.941389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc90f…55e4backed Yes1c1,013$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11825%2 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-65.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No47c836.7$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.895,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed Yes60c676.44$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.163250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c671$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.425,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes15c636.73$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.514,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No31c598$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.784,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No54c544.4$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.293,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes3c542.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.072,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes67c498.14$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.451,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes38c421$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No27c369.04$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.91,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes49c316.04$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.8512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No42c311.12$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.9145130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes65c305$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.751030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf055…ccddbacked No38c304.63$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.118950.6%45 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes45c285$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6495933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes35c281.58$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.4119737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes30c273.94$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.236,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No52c271.7$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5183459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes32c245.42$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.931,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No61c236.19$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.72,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed Yes32c227.31$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5215435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e18…b3ecbacked Yes58c217.04$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.714652.2%24 W · 22 L+6.5wins+0.14per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3016…54e9backed No6c215.11$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.213614.7%20 W · 116 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes30c215.04$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$643740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c205.17$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.714,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No64c203.37$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.238138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No8c200$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18514119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No51c191.31$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.541,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No22c181$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.7895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No54c175.3$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.8980957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes37c166.88$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.2974338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No64c155.04$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.0437942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No44c152.82$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.288650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x757e…8128backed Yes77c150$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6167…8533backed Yes33c149.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6173…31d4backed No69c144.61$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.61887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick73cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b7…8030backed Yes37c140.77$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.7212564.8%81 W · 44 L+0.2wins0.00per pick65cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf677…2efebacked Yes33c139.81$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.23537.1%13 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-42.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c138.76$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.293,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes42c136.35$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.534839.6%19 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes52c132$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8520144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No62c128$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.073,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x947a…cd42backed Yes29c120.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick38cpaid+10.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes67c114.15$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$762259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae94…7efbbacked Yes43c107.63$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.052850%14 W · 14 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No55c106$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.333,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes69c103.76$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No20c101$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7728456%159 W · 125 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3422746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad64…4a5cbacked No74c100$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.188337.3%31 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x98df…7870backed Yes80c100$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked Yes36c98.08$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.471,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed Yes40c96.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4213051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6961…511bbacked Yes78c94.99$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.194461.4%27 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes33c93.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4444536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked No62c90.91$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.544847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No66c90.35$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.1248743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1bf7…ea54backed No65c90.28$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.628441.2%117 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes51c90.15$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.091,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes37c89.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.191,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3728…a76dbacked Yes40c80$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.15726.3%15 W · 42 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No29c79.91$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.062,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes58c79.89$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.042,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No38c77.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.552,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes52c76.62$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.061,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes39c76.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.753020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9f2…c27cbacked Yes63c74.16$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5514932.9%49 W · 100 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c73.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.268,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf875…814dbacked Yes40c72.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.939458.5%55 W · 39 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No60c71.62$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8218441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes35c71.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked No54c71.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5411753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d85…8d52backed Yes29c69.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes32c69.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.540025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc030…1398backed No66c68.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.332934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-24.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7a9…ab06backed Yes57c68.42$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391250%6 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f9f…894fbacked Yes37c68.34$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.611361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes36c67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.152,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked Yes36c66.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No29c65.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.812,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd24b…187dbacked Yes77c65.3$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5061365.3%400 W · 213 L+43.8wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+15.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No18c64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.582,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No20c63.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5461752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes32c63.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes33c62.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.582138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes33c61.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3948149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe62e…917cbacked Yes41c61$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0115558.7%91 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6659…b7cabacked Yes38c60.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9993837.6%353 W · 585 L-14.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e70…50ebbacked Yes65c60$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.231567%211 W · 104 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes37c59.97$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1971031.5%224 W · 486 L+3.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c59.67$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.485,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…b1c2backed Yes34c59.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No47c59$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.052,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes29c58.76$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.82,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.