Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d7f03e93100a40d6aa26b0abadee18434ff4c55987988bc69dd8f7de285ab49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,778
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ef…21d7backed Yes | 7c | 1,296$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f9…1ee3backed Yes | 17c | 1,216$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.34 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked Yes | 5c | 504.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb467…e6b7backed Yes | 4c | 413.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 15c | 335$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 4c | 322.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 27c | 300.73$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.54 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 8c | 299.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 7c | 271.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f5…d8a1backed Yes | 6c | 261.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 22c | 193.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 6c | 170.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 78c | 110.49$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…3134backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3728…a76dbacked Yes | 23c | 79.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 75c | 73.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.69 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 79c | 63.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 79c | 63.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 68c | 61.38$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae94…7efbbacked Yes | 20c | 55.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 32c | 50.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked Yes | 21c | 47.62$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c6…94a2backed Yes | 23c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 41.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…0d6bbacked No | 67c | 30.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 156 | 69.2%108 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 79c | 27.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.02 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 21.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 68c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 80c | 15.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 68c | 15.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 64c | 15.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.