Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91314467ac3d855f001bfa92aa36154a35c5d30b04f917ded5053e48af289b23
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5f9…1ee3backed Yes | 4c | 6,378$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.91 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 519.6$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…9317backed Yes | 16c | 508.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 80c | 466.25$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.08 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e3…f6c8backed Yes | 23c | 456.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 19c | 360.84$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 5c | 333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 352 | 32.7%115 W · 237 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5221…bd4dbacked Yes | 18c | 273.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 33cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 244.06$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.73 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…ccccbacked Yes | 5c | 238.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 80c | 218.68$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 19c | 216.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 23c | 172$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 21c | 171.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 165$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0036…df65backed Yes | 34c | 160.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 197 | 37.1%73 W · 124 L | -10.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 79c | 154.11$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 18c | 150.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 80c | 145.46$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5059…5263backed No | 76c | 138.84$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 130.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.61 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 125.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 11c | 116.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 28c | 111.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked No | 79c | 107.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 26c | 105.71$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 10c | 100.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a89…b1c2backed Yes | 20c | 100.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…79aabacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a96…cf5cbacked Yes | 20c | 98.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 21c | 94.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 23c | 91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 79c | 87.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 77c | 74.42$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 72.13$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26b6…94b8backed Yes | 26c | 71.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 80c | 67$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 74c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 23c | 66.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 64.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 80c | 59.31$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 25c | 55.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9c…02febacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c3…981abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3155…cf15backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8442…3eddbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -6.8wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -43%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…fe80backed Yes | 22c | 47.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbb…ca06backed No | 80c | 35.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 71c | 35.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 30.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed No | 77c | 26.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 25.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fd…1902backed No | 79c | 25.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 112 | 57.1%64 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.35 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 65c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 75c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 69c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 77c | 19.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…3087backed No | 78c | 16.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebd…a3a9backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 79c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.