Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2b4eeaaf20c3428709245e12256d8825d7bf195386f5a9ac6907d0d0f138c9c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 3c | 9,517$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.99 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 3c | 9,112$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.32 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 3c | 4,000$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,572$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.47 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 7c | 2,038$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.84 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 2c | 1,397$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 2c | 1,324$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +105.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 1,059$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 899.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 2c | 778.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecf…c85dbacked Yes | 3c | 772.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 43 | 11.6%5 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 737.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 5c | 719.6$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 4c | 663.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 5c | 643.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 5c | 626.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 5c | 616.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.43 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 4c | 499.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 7c | 396.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 367.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…d8b9backed Yes | 3c | 361.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 344.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 5c | 331.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 5c | 316.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 6c | 307.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 4c | 302.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed Yes | 6c | 299.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 154 | 35.7%55 W · 99 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 6c | 261.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 8c | 252.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 8c | 250$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 13c | 249.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.4 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 5c | 248.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 9c | 243$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 16c | 240.74$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.08 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 8c | 228.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 7c | 216.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 6c | 215.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 13c | 209.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 191.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 11c | 177.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 6c | 174.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 7c | 170.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 7c | 140.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 9c | 139$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…6c81backed Yes | 11c | 134.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…ff3ebacked Yes | 11c | 115$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 18c | 112.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 13c | 80.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C or higher on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.