TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,924
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,074

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,924 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 233 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes69c1,437$993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.1631319.2%60 W · 253 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes70c687.62$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.972138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd13…94e5backed Yes9c581.32$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.251414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-57%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No59c574.81$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.088,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes51c558.6$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.6315570.3%109 W · 46 L+23.6wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+16.2%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes66c461.97$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.921,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11d3…20c1backed Yes24c451.2$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.041428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-29.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x601a…2888backed No59c444.74$263 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f6…828ebacked No59c444.08$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2345130.8%139 W · 312 L+33.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+9.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed No30c435.73$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.011,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No45c428.78$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.043,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes41c408.84$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.8665043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No57c394$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.75,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes40c375.31$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3386420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes41c368.56$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked No29c368.16$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.571,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No58c358.01$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.955,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed No31c333$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7784930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9e3…f6c8backed Yes48c325.07$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.84333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95d…7b6dbacked Yes47c319.35$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa200…27b0backed No32c308.99$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.3315435.7%55 W · 99 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes39c269.99$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0256434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes67c265.09$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.442849.5%212 W · 216 L+45.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No50c251.49$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.683,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xce54…70fcbacked Yes41c250.53$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes40c243$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.391,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed No43c241.02$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.7937942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No31c225.9$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.2448743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x323a…66bcbacked Yes40c220.57$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No76c220$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.873,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd91…32b8backed No76c219.13$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.021,42852.1%744 W · 684 L-21.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1933…1a53backed No52c218.15$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7313051.5%67 W · 63 L+7.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No59c205.96$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.181,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No61c205.43$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.5365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes41c200.1$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No35c189.9$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.911,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0036…df65backed Yes36c189.69$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.4919737.1%73 W · 124 L-10.3wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No55c183.98$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4276924.3%187 W · 582 L-16.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-40.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No33c181.33$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.752,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No54c180.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.234344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ebf…a01dbacked Yes56c180.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick66cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes55c175$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.4912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No48c171.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.942,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes49c170.36$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.891,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…1f0abacked Yes56c165.19$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d7…608dbacked No26c162.88$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.251643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No55c160.7$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.752,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked No54c156$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4279040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5059…5263backed No26c155.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.773250%16 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No40c155.06$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.451,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes43c154.07$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.033740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb455…6af1backed Yes75c149.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked No43c146.75$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.3311753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No50c142$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.64,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4bd…3ca3backed Yes79c130$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes35c129.27$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0917,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes63c129.13$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.4438138.6%147 W · 234 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No31c121.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.6134533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes60c121.18$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3548149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d85…8d52backed Yes76c119.99$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.19922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes42c119.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5015131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes62c119.05$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.639239.1%36 W · 56 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-38.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes60c118.15$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.422,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb42…6e09backed No59c115.56$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.565151%26 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes67c114.77$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2695933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc96…7e88backed Yes41c113.74$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa255…5cbcbacked Yes62c109.99$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.993145.2%14 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9283…a336backed Yes51c109.79$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.53887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick62cpaid+53.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3a0…b7a2backed No38c104.85$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.464546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No42c103$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.155,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc41d…c51dbacked No42c102.98$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8916144.1%71 W · 90 L+14.3wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x90e2…fc3fbacked No36c101.44$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.114148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes41c101.29$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5651733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No33c101$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.222,10256.5%1,188 W · 914 L+61.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No30c100.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.591,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d0…5009backed No59c100$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80bd…a8cdbacked No61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3916840.5%68 W · 100 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…79aabacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392825%7 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a84…171fbacked Yes43c100$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4325239.7%100 W · 152 L-0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…acc7backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.3250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No56c100$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No57c97$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.7163757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No48c96.57$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.92,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2109…58b3backed No47c95.8$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.075337.7%20 W · 33 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c94.59$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3334…69b0backed Yes41c94$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.9846444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes37c93.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No58c92.75$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.9550373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No43c90.99$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.931,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No62c88.31$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.814,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3615…1577backed Yes73c87.8$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.861723.5%4 W · 13 L-4.3wins-0.25per pick49cpaid-36%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No46c84.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.372,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c0…cb52backed Yes43c82.32$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No31c81.65$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.9585330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x196d…9688backed Yes62c80.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes52c79.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4522746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No59c79.25$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.223,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e4a…f43dbacked Yes63c79.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb376…f6a0backed Yes39c76.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6012…900fbacked Yes42c73.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.074551.1%23 W · 22 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.