Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86b3d6fc102eff05cd076cc46e595e046e94fc547ed1400a9b94353ef8169364
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7827…a351backed Yes | 5c | 1,249$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes | 4c | 525.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 4c | 464.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 380.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 8c | 377.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 6c | 302.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26da…8999backed Yes | 10c | 285.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 8c | 243.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes | 10c | 230.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 210.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 7c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 164.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 160.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…c5bdbacked Yes | 18c | 159.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 27c | 149.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 7c | 142.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 130$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe9…affdbacked Yes | 11c | 126.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 10c | 123.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 9c | 116.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 11c | 112.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9e…9466backed Yes | 11c | 110.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +108%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 19c | 105.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x326b…eca1backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 16c | 95.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 25c | 77.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 15c | 67.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 21c | 57.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…8d1cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…339abacked Yes | 27c | 49.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 74c | 35.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 34.75$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 21.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C or below on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C or higher on May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.