TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$41,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,324

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 225 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbd5d…05f7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e0…fe5bbacked Yes40c1,319$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.5531043.2%134 W · 176 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes20c799.37$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.895,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed No64c757.33$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.9957044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No58c683.97$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.0476755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes42c671.89$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.1542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No50c449.49$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.91,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes41c407.64$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1691,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No63c387.16$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.365965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes37c364.34$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.321,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No60c345.62$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.215,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23b2…605cbacked No61c342.15$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.1511459.6%68 W · 46 L-7.1wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-11.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No64c339.62$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.132,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes40c334.73$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.484628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes15c327$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.2995933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes34c316.82$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.837628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9953…9ef2backed Yes19c300.19$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.45850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+45.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes73c293.94$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.4627047%127 W · 143 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No63c285.81$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.923,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes43c280.98$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7a1…a85ebacked No67c275.58$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.615468.5%37 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No61c272.43$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.232,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Yes25c268.51$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.229017.8%16 W · 74 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd970…932abacked No66c258.09$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.938920.2%18 W · 71 L+6.1wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes37c243.83$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9574338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes13c237.6$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.811,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7827…a351backed Yes51c237.55$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203740.5%15 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a50…6c35backed Yes44c225.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002948.3%14 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes12c223.83$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.565812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No69c223.5$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.84,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes42c200$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.961,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes41c189.99$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.911337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No61c189.82$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.9171159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes38c180.91$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.532,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No64c174.68$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.151,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb286…aac7backed Yes62c173.04$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.298726.4%23 W · 64 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes36c172.03$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No59c170$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.2530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No49c165.82$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.613,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf70…8f19backed Yes41c162.84$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7813941.7%58 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No53c160.74$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.8888650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes34c155.42$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.573737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked No58c153.1$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.329346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes31c152.2$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.72060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes13c142$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1135232.7%115 W · 237 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No51c138.05$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0942049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes28c131.37$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.924,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No61c131$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.323,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0329…db42backed Yes35c130.84$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.42110%0 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed Yes32c126.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1712228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No65c124.79$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9480957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c2…d53dbacked No54c123.14$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8513755.5%76 W · 61 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes38c121.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2856434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d4c…2e02backed Yes41c120.76$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c119.66$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.967,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No33c115$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.275,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked Yes42c114.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2913942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes34c114.97$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.48650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes38c110.52$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.893,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29df…aeecbacked Yes38c110$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.114043.6%61 W · 79 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d6f…0e20backed No59c107$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8791444.7%409 W · 505 L+16.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes53c104.58$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes40c102.82$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.260054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes39c102.03$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.712941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes37c101.06$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.477,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781f…0884backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x326b…eca1backed Yes31c100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-54.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes43c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.510439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed No56c99.99$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444344.2%19 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed No58c99.97$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.995450%27 W · 27 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x815b…a1c7backed Yes42c95.24$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-64.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c40…8ef9backed Yes23c94.19$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.261850%9 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes45c93.67$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0151553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes38c90$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0832…8681backed Yes56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9534651.2%177 W · 169 L-6.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c89.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.922,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36d7…5013backed Yes41c87.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No60c87.3$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.344,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aeb…f1abbacked Yes41c84.57$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No61c82.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.3889661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c80.3$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.115,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No61c79.76$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.781,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes14c79.66$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.931,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes27c77.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7220358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes25c76.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2234624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes39c76.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9647136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No58c76.57$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4255855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf31d…b5f1backed Yes54c75.04$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked Yes38c70.38$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.7421272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3621…9da2backed Yes22c69.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3211334.5%39 W · 74 L+12.1wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+40.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No64c69.7$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.7695852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xce05…ff90backed Yes44c68.29$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3624053.3%128 W · 112 L-9.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes43c67.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f37…1410backed Yes50c65.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.384930.6%260 W · 589 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+28%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No55c65.03$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2481756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x269a…5628backed No62c64.78$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.78785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick65cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2e80…6910backed Yes67c64.11$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.915560%33 W · 22 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.