TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,249
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,249 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6ff2…f140backed Yes35c1,044$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$681.991,25025.4%317 W · 933 L+57.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes65c807.37$528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.75,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes23c542.85$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.261,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No20c521.46$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.468,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes37c519.47$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.3729732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No53c508.62$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.141,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No55c508.26$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.1756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes59c499.9$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0395933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No37c487.16$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.4176755.4%425 W · 342 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes46c452.99$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.443,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No50c447.42$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.482,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes74c406.28$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.5827079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x27ab…e521backed No70c386.59$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1865965.4%431 W · 228 L-12.7wins-0.02per pick67cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No18c340.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.744,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No48c315.14$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.895,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No32c305.22$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.033,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes49c304.06$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.0617135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3aa6…49a1backed No78c302.11$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.834067.5%27 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick66cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes39c291.3$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.67628.9%22 W · 54 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…6450backed No6c286.17$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9614119.1%27 W · 114 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-30.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c255.5$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.075,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11fc…8262backed Yes56c247.97$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.9837942.2%160 W · 219 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes33c240.63$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.9374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No61c230.56$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.652,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked No59c200$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1183435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes39c199.98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.9911337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No50c189.05$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1688650.2%445 W · 441 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No25c185.78$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.811,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb8…89b9backed Yes67c178.6$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.232060%12 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+23%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes30c173.81$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2161249.5%303 W · 309 L+30.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x570c…91c5backed No58c165.17$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5771159.2%421 W · 290 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No41c164.16$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.761,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes46c162.86$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.863636.1%13 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes29c162.39$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.111,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb55c…04eabacked No79c158.77$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.1220172.6%146 W · 55 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick76cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No61c152.98$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.923,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x263d…fc4cbacked Yes46c150$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.581540%6 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes26c148.75$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6556434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x143c…487ebacked Yes47c141.24$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.245831%18 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-22.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ca9…fe9cbacked Yes37c133.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.014628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No70c133$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1250373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0857…dc72backed Yes38c132$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823737.8%14 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No48c125.23$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6780957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7187…f08bbacked Yes25c121.83$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.84650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+25.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87f0…85f7backed Yes34c121.17$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.766717.9%12 W · 55 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No11c119.94$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.757,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c118.25$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9812,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes25c109.81$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8127421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No55c107.06$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.814,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6128…b3e7backed Yes23c106.87$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.511421.4%3 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick13cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc60c…cdeebacked Yes23c105.88$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.955812.1%7 W · 51 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick20cpaid+103.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes23c105$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.6834624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x958a…9f65backed No46c104.61$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2555855.2%308 W · 250 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed Yes43c102.82$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.4160054.2%325 W · 275 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4320…4a44backed No15c101.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152536%9 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-30.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes43c101.32$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.0712941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4b9…a73abacked Yes44c100$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.510439.4%41 W · 63 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No24c100$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.21,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2137…7ddabacked Yes25c99.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+147%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No66c95.91$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.624,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17dd…056abacked Yes26c94.93$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.536913%9 W · 60 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7634…780fbacked Yes74c94.38$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.613441.2%14 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes61c93.66$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.1912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.082,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No46c89.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes58c86.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0420144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2632…6475backed Yes49c84.35$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.253246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9410…9160backed No42c83.95$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9942049%206 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes43c80.48$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.484540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No50c80.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.475,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed Yes47c79.99$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.3989661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7603…2276backed No61c79.37$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7714674.7%109 W · 37 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5042…f296backed Yes44c78.3$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.179744.3%43 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No27c75.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.381,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No52c75.17$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.782,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd837…3d06backed Yes72c70$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.72147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6d8…b90dbacked No57c68.78$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4783459.8%499 W · 335 L+27.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e5d…9491backed No73c68.45$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9730859.1%182 W · 126 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8505…6240backed Yes21c68$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.72837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+42.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd992…985abacked Yes38c66.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.322128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No23c65.29$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19fc…1a12backed Yes21c65$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.07450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+90.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbbdd…b9d7backed Yes34c64.94$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.121030%3 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+90.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6086…a5f9backed No43c62.82$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0931050.3%156 W · 154 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f3e…5337backed No64c62.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4081848.5%397 W · 421 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x531b…da26backed Yes40c61.56$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.812733.1%42 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6897…a4a4backed Yes25c61.17$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1719217.2%33 W · 159 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ea7…7450backed No48c60.79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2141760.4%252 W · 165 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes40c60.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.5551553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes54c60.14$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.520358.6%119 W · 84 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No67c59$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.282,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes39c57.61$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9244536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked No51c57.35$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.251,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x425d…6cb0backed Yes73c56.45$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.4925344.7%113 W · 140 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No79c56.14$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4788973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e0…82f9backed No59c55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2530565.9%201 W · 104 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3972…a677backed No60c53.16$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.981756.4%461 W · 356 L-23.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes21c53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8742036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.