Bundesliga · resolved market
BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a9b0bca41c3fa1cecaddd73938f0413ed7615fe61709f18f1e463542b627b30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $79,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c75…8c7abacked Under | 1c | 9,257$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.61 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Under | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 50c | 3,422$1,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,711.59 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e7…caa8backed Under | 4c | 3,300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 20c | 2,718$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.77 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…9c1ebacked Under | 4c | 2,600$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…1f3cbacked Over | 80c | 2,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.01 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5520…32ffbacked Under | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 33c | 1,829$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.48 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 80c | 1,250$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e2…7b4ebacked Under | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Under | 1c | 1,200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +5.4wins | +0.19per pick | 33cpaid | +257.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77e1…5924backed Under | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 7cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Over | 52c | 1,190$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.17 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +31%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…9b2abacked Under | 4c | 1,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0f…a318backed Over | 27c | 999.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 995.48$579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.52 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked Under | 65c | 966.04$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…8d1cbacked Under | 76c | 899.46$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 55c | 541.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 76c | 491.26$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.98 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 54c | 372.22$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.22 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 14c | 367.28$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 314.7$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a7…eb44backed Over | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…0accbacked Over | 32c | 300$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +160.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 118 | 57.6%68 W · 50 L | +15.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 76c | 263.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.15 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 15c | 178$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ad…cc15backed Under | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 36c | 122.26$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 46c | 106.75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.32 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…37c1backed Under | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 16c | 101.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x884d…1da6backed Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3459…808abacked Under | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…3de3backed Under | 15c | 99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 15c | 81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 76c | 75$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Over | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 15c | 69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…4bf1backed Over | 61c | 65.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 56c | 62.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 22c | 56.65$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 29c | 41.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 195 | 44.6%87 W · 108 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Over | 29c | 41.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.38 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e1…9de8backed Under | 30c | 36.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe398…ee2ebacked Over | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 36 | 88.9%32 W · 4 L | +8.1wins | +0.23per pick | 66cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 50c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…253cbacked Under | 72c | 32.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38b9…1cb4backed Over | 41c | 31.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…8528backed Under | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 2.5Under won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.