TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$113,614
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$120,782

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $113,614 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x88d0…17a6backed Yes20c10,241$2,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,021.911940.3%48 W · 71 L+0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes14c7,519$1,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.0752750.3%265 W · 262 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c5e…8819backed Yes21c5,609$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200955.6%5 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes1c5,563$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9122723.8%54 W · 173 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…c18cbacked Yes3c4,515$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3112033.3%40 W · 80 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c95…ffc4backed Yes1c3,487$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c1,646$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.782550.8%2 W · 253 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-68.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,364$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.62,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes4c1,200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0819411.9%23 W · 171 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4382…f0e0backed Yes19c1,056$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes32c991.06$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.892119%4 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick22cpaid+92%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa74d…734cbacked Yes17c782.36$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13328462.3%177 W · 107 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ec…1ed5backed Yes21c563.83$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.03922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-53%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xafce…db52backed Yes20c503.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08e0…c646backed Yes24c500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6f5…424bbacked Yes34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2229…6bf8backed Yes41c470.04$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No58c461.73$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.612770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+23.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes17c434.71$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.058035%28 W · 52 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb623…476dbacked Yes19c403.75$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3510028%28 W · 72 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e55…c88dbacked Yes29c390$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.21844.4%8 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+8.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8420…6183backed Yes26c370$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.81752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ac…5a76backed Yes37c369.77$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2fd…ecf7backed Yes15c350$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.590%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a0c…48fdbacked Yes20c307.37$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.474348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed No67c300$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$992050%10 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Yes37c300$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11140264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab63…8f4bbacked Yes20c300$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes18c277.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023836.1%86 W · 152 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-33.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes38c263.97$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003821.1%8 W · 30 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked No70c263.94$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.764626.1%12 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0aa…851cbacked Yes20c250.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e71…7dadbacked Yes42c248.47$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Yes39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7446556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe613…540ebacked Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf937…53a1backed Yes18c182.3$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.13540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No76c180$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431471.4%10 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d26…ccb8backed Yes20c180$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3613762.8%86 W · 51 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No60c171.96$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.261963.2%12 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4be7…8e91backed Yes17c171.89$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes21c153.42$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe48f…a3cdbacked Yes35c151$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36f…2185backed No65c151$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd7db…569dbacked Yes20c150$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-58.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a7…f1acbacked Yes35c144$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x356e…499ebacked No65c144$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02c9…e4f5backed Yes21c141.86$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecad…7b01backed Yes35c137$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08b9…b95abacked No65c137$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87b0…0ad4backed No65c135$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa062…04eebacked Yes35c135$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x616f…e14cbacked Yes37c131.08$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.51747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a4…9209backed No65c127$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bd9…d7d1backed No65c127$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeec…9a13backed Yes35c127$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeee7…76d0backed Yes35c127$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff36…b539backed No65c127$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x228d…dd5bbacked Yes35c127$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78d…5ac2backed Yes44c113.43$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+125%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4991…158fbacked Yes35c112$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd541…7a4fbacked No65c112$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc55…3f46backed Yes33c100$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335074%37 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+16.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0fca…f72ebacked Yes36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342050%10 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342250%11 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ab3…d47cbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1511143.2%48 W · 63 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab8…ae32backed Yes32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-56.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64eb…7bd8backed No65c92$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b1…3f4dbacked Yes35c92$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41b0…26a7backed Yes37c81.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0206…740abacked No65c77$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4a1…ebaabacked Yes35c77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa72a…93fdbacked Yes15c74.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.372152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde58…b901backed Yes37c71.41$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes32c70.84$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.671163.4%4 W · 112 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-91.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ba4…baf3backed Yes30c67.13$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes31c66.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.93828.5%7 W · 75 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05fa…c771backed Yes37c64.69$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2430%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No70c64$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9727744.4%123 W · 154 L-12.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xafb5…cc10backed Yes24c62.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e3…c028backed No68c60$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c90…9bbfbacked Yes38c52.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…0023backed Yes39c51.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e58…4faabacked Yes20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…c63dbacked Yes42c47.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes38c45.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.125433.5%85 W · 169 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No62c41.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.95540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-42.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0125…299dbacked Yes38c41.68$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5acc…b6b4backed Yes49c41.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…85ddbacked Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa171…23e3backed Yes35c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142475%18 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9870…5bd6backed Yes38c35.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No79c31.01$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.47966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.238147%179 W · 202 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb616…0086backed No76c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5838…367cbacked Yes35c29$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.26757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb281…e8b9backed Yes38c28.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-57.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40fa…95dfbacked Yes40c28.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed No77c27.21$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.