Tennis · resolved market

Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c6fb4e6b453cf648d0a985e3ce5249c60c2eaeb9e133ddf3c3413fce9acadf5

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 7, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $418,232
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $107,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $418,232 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes	1c	44,499$509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe87b…8d24backed Yes	1c	31,171$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.44	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	2c	29,413$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498.58	226	23.9%54 W · 172 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4879…5547backed Yes	2c	22,452$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.31	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	2c	17,275$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.61	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fab…3cabbacked Yes	1c	14,323$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.46	249	31.3%78 W · 171 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Yes	1c	11,543$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.06	290	45.9%133 W · 157 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd18…0e39backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	1c	10,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.86	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	9,774$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.86	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb094…bf7fbacked Yes	1c	7,586$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	51	27.5%14 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	1c	7,375$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	277	39%108 W · 169 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9da…3ef5backed Yes	1c	7,067$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-3.9wins	-0.15per pick	39cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed Yes	1c	6,250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d8…0b2abacked Yes	1c	5,167$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1cb5…6be6backed Yes	2c	5,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	250	51.2%128 W · 122 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	4,573$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.34	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	1c	4,545$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.16	444	23.9%106 W · 338 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	1c	4,436$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ee…9bdcbacked Yes	3c	4,402$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.04	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-62%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	0c	4,223$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.34	308	27.6%85 W · 223 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa983…7ab4backed Yes	1c	3,967$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.76	145	45.5%66 W · 79 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Yes	2c	3,841$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.27	215	24.7%53 W · 162 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x946e…9749backed Yes	2c	3,642$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd914…0d9abacked Yes	1c	3,526$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.71	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	3c	3,394$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.04	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf535…4103backed Yes	2c	3,285$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3eb1…a0ebbacked Yes	6c	3,216$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56b2…2ce1backed Yes	3c	3,147$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.08	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d58…cfccbacked Yes	1c	3,080$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	87	28.7%25 W · 62 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2e…05a6backed Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	2,979$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	102	21.6%22 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6665…d1efbacked Yes	2c	2,550$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.15	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-94.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cff…45acbacked Yes	4c	2,500$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.5	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-53%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	1c	2,361$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	3.7%2 W · 52 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2667…74cfbacked Yes	3c	2,225$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-48%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	2c	2,213$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.11	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+87.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1081…8216backed Yes	1c	2,126$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	3cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fa1…53f6backed Yes	3c	2,016$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.17	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,988$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.48	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcac…6621backed Yes	4c	1,888$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.08	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe379…d124backed Yes	1c	1,831$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.23	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe42b…e8a5backed Yes	4c	1,815$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.81	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93a0…74debacked Yes	2c	1,813$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.15	27	14.8%4 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-43.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	1,761$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.52	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Yes	3c	1,755$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	1,504	35.1%528 W · 976 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes	1c	1,676$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	106	22.6%24 W · 82 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7be4…8477backed Yes	2c	1,600$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes	4c	1,413$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.68	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+145.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	1,368$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.75	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b91…27dcbacked Yes	1c	1,350$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x067d…2720backed Yes	2c	1,277$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c50…e0c9backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	421	31.6%133 W · 288 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa220…4c66backed Yes	1c	1,250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4c…2042backed Yes	2c	1,231$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.8	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	12cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Yes	1c	1,147$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.05	50	36%18 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Yes	4c	972.09$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.79	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes	4c	909.84$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.44	530	43%228 W · 302 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a3…d760backed Yes	1c	816$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ca2…03cfbacked Yes	5c	800$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	55	36.4%20 W · 35 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59c9…9c02backed Yes	3c	799.96$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…4652backed Yes	2c	770.73$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.7	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-5.9wins	-0.24per pick	56cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes	2c	750$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	35	14.3%5 W · 30 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe57…53c6backed Yes	1c	739.71$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	82	34.1%28 W · 54 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	2c	701.66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes	3c	677.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.29	17	0%0 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xacac…2d37backed Yes	3c	580$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	90	40%36 W · 54 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b4cabacked Yes	2c	567.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	288	28.5%82 W · 206 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d65…3781backed Yes	3c	499.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa143…5b6fbacked Yes	3c	427.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes	3c	310$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.23	389	47.3%184 W · 205 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb099…3560backed Yes	4c	301.79$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	101	57.4%58 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a3e…c46fbacked Yes	4c	275$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.8wins	-0.23per pick	36cpaid	-79.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ad6…5e1cbacked Yes	5c	199.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-52.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event