Tennis · resolved market

Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbae88a49b569b9f5fce84e21961adb9308991de7271ccc9aade9e8617244d10

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $274,442
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,784

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,442 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ca4…348fbacked Yes	1c	53,199$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655	294	43.5%128 W · 166 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fab…3cabbacked Yes	1c	23,383$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.34	263	30.8%81 W · 182 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb5…6210backed Yes	0c	21,365$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.73	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	18,448$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	0c	16,475$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e60…3badbacked Yes	1c	14,067$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.58	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	0%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	0c	12,930$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.72	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x788a…a3f7backed Yes	1c	12,539$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…3578backed Yes	0c	8,530$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-92.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	6,549$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.09	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	5,791$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.98	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	0c	5,693$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.35	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9796…8718backed Yes	0c	5,183$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	65	35.4%23 W · 42 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes	1c	5,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	165	29.1%48 W · 117 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f79…c61cbacked Yes	0c	3,510$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x946e…9749backed Yes	1c	3,118$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1870…f3e5backed Yes	1c	1,688$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+3.3wins	+0.13per pick	31cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b8e…a746backed Yes	1c	997.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Francisco Cerúndolo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event