Tennis · resolved market

Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x369ea053f2da9cf6f7a985594c890439968cee9cd47e9b8c28733699c868eefb

Rebuilt 22 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 18, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $433,188
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $398,235

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $433,188 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf49c…9786backed Yes	0c	225,000$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	1c	16,933$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdb5…6210backed Yes	0c	7,524$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.58	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes	0c	5,986$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.25	103	18.4%19 W · 84 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	4,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.6	102	21.6%22 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	1c	2,865$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.16	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,645$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x385b…b81dbacked Yes	0c	2,616$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d40…b4ecbacked Yes	1c	2,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	135	46.7%63 W · 72 L	+11.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xca00…dc89backed Yes	1c	2,201$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf962…c284backed Yes	1c	1,925$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.48	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2602…8e9dbacked Yes	1c	1,734$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	1,690$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.9	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23eb…97eabacked Yes	1c	1,664$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x931a…92fcbacked Yes	1c	1,624$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.62	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc81…1d7abacked Yes	1c	1,617$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8281…1f0fbacked Yes	7c	481.54$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.51	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event