Tennis · resolved market

Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8103ed57a898ca3a28fc75a0ce32632c22ee2eecd1a997fa57d083e3df82f518

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $306,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $50,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	0c	40,101$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.2	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	0c	36,911$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.09	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	33,165$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.1	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4502…9ebdbacked Yes	0c	15,471$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.88	57	1.8%1 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	10,217$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.65	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	1c	9,218$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	277	39%108 W · 169 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed Yes	1c	8,329$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	1c	7,361$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52dc…7138backed Yes	1c	6,667$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca1…4268backed Yes	1c	6,500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.97	155	31.6%49 W · 106 L	-9.0wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6665…d1efbacked Yes	0c	6,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-94.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	0c	5,519$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3944…6470backed Yes	0c	5,202$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	1c	5,170$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.51	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes	1c	5,074$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.22	93	3.2%3 W · 90 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes	0c	5,053$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	156	57.1%89 W · 67 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d40…b4ecbacked Yes	0c	4,871$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	135	46.7%63 W · 72 L	+11.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d84…3578backed Yes	0c	4,854$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-92.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Yes	0c	4,840$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.16	50	36%18 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes	0c	4,476$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd95f…be7bbacked Yes	2c	4,162$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.15	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc470…c792backed Yes	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,504	35.1%528 W · 976 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	0c	3,351$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Yes	1c	2,800$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	656	52.1%342 W · 314 L	+7.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa983…7ab4backed Yes	1c	2,800$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	145	45.5%66 W · 79 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7c8…e573backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes	1c	1,784$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.47	56	39.3%22 W · 34 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+145.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93a0…74debacked Yes	1c	1,069$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Hubert Hurkacz be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event