Tennis · resolved market

Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52ddc11391658a2a0b04c61ccecb42bf379669ef3a5341de436b9b817bf06180

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $344,907
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $88,926

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $344,907 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	39,737$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.53	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	1c	27,009$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.35	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e60…3badbacked Yes	2c	20,201$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	0%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	1c	20,008$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Yes	1c	16,541$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.22	868	35.4%307 W · 561 L	+22.9wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	1c	14,051$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.69	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cff…45acbacked Yes	1c	11,704$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.63	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-53%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	1c	9,670$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.52	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca1…4268backed Yes	1c	8,946$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.4	155	31.6%49 W · 106 L	-9.0wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	8,279$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.4	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	1c	8,100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.7	102	21.6%22 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf49c…9786backed Yes	1c	6,165$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed Yes	1c	5,933$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.72	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	1c	5,751$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.26	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8d40…b4ecbacked Yes	1c	5,436$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.03	135	46.7%63 W · 72 L	+11.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb623…476dbacked Yes	1c	5,285$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.64	100	28%28 W · 72 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	4,712$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.65	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	4,279$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.26	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	0c	3,859$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.95	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	1c	3,705$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.75	277	39%108 W · 169 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Yes	1c	3,681$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.4	474	53.2%252 W · 222 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4502…9ebdbacked Yes	1c	3,021$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	57	1.8%1 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6665…d1efbacked Yes	1c	3,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-94.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,933$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec4f…8783backed Yes	3c	2,808$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Yes	1c	2,664$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.85	724	52.6%381 W · 343 L	+34.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	2c	2,566$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.49	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2667…74cfbacked Yes	2c	2,500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-48%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9de…5169backed Yes	1c	2,435$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.35	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a7c…3016backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	38	21.1%8 W · 30 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46f…0819backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Yes	2c	1,977$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.94	308	27.6%85 W · 223 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	1c	1,932$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	194	11.9%23 W · 171 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes	1c	1,588$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.35	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed Yes	1c	1,524$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	+2.4wins	+0.10per pick	32cpaid	+87.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaba4…3fa6backed Yes	1c	1,441$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	75	48%36 W · 39 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x946e…9749backed Yes	1c	1,389$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-25%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb099…3560backed Yes	1c	1,122$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4269…bd80backed Yes	4c	1,110$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.63	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814e…40b1backed Yes	2c	703.17$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Matteo Berrettini be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event