Tennis · resolved market

Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f49529537b39b6a4e9608133be4d4200a37f7cf2591993fb4cb94614edf161

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $457,272
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $259,370

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $457,272 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x19b7…9ee6backed Yes	1c	76,316$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	50	36%18 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	0c	61,386$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.39	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	17,627$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.96	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2fd…ecf7backed Yes	1c	13,219$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.1	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc22c…0396backed Yes	2c	10,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ab7…f1b9backed Yes	1c	9,142$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.3	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Yes	0c	7,292$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	139	34.5%48 W · 91 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	0c	7,250$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	277	39%108 W · 169 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	7,063$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdb5…6210backed Yes	0c	7,047$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.54	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	6,831$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.09	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d40…b4ecbacked Yes	0c	6,550$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.2	135	46.7%63 W · 72 L	+11.8wins	+0.09per pick	38cpaid	+6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Yes	1c	6,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	101	57.4%58 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes	1c	5,779$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	0c	5,520$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.08	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1d8…0b2abacked Yes	1c	5,384$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.42	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	21cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	1c	5,186$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.22	444	23.9%106 W · 338 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	5,100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	102	21.6%22 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	1c	5,094$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.57	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	1c	4,565$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.62	87	10.3%9 W · 78 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	0c	4,314$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91ad…a5cabacked Yes	1c	4,293$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.32	119	19.3%23 W · 96 L	-6.4wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca1…4268backed Yes	1c	3,922$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	155	31.6%49 W · 106 L	-9.0wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	1c	3,900$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.95	527	50.3%265 W · 262 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes	0c	2,572$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	106	22.6%24 W · 82 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,472$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.35	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93a0…74debacked Yes	2c	2,283$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.72	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2e…05a6backed Yes	1c	2,146$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.17	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec5a…a319backed Yes	0c	2,144$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	16cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe267…5295backed Yes	2c	1,908$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e33…1482backed Yes	1c	1,673$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc728…ed5abacked Yes	1c	1,649$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x612e…c33fbacked Yes	1c	1,260$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x288c…3641backed Yes	2c	1,148$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	30.9%29 W · 65 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Yes	2c	818.48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	83	34.9%29 W · 54 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arthur Fils be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event