Tennis · resolved market

Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x680256a6bd4197fdb71273e649f62648550a2b98c4eff39866bcea5ebd09198e

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $409,862
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $102,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,862 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0e60…3badbacked Yes	2c	100,544$1,767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,766.71	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	0%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fab…3cabbacked Yes	1c	25,839$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.18	249	31.3%78 W · 171 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	19,205$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.93	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes	1c	15,989$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	10,316$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.55	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	0c	10,240$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	1c	9,972$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.83	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f50…a1c1backed Yes	0c	8,909$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.73	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+23.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25ed…ffe0backed Yes	1c	8,600$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.31	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4502…9ebdbacked Yes	0c	8,080$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	57	1.8%1 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3761…203cbacked Yes	1c	7,620$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	34cpaid	-49%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Yes	1c	6,854$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.1	50	36%18 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x039c…0450backed Yes	1c	6,521$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.72	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	6,229$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.37	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x452f…9b78backed Yes	1c	5,298$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.58	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+1.9wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	4,628$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.83	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c9d…2ee4backed Yes	1c	4,545$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	40.4%19 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes	1c	4,500$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.5	165	29.1%48 W · 117 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7d…b30ebacked Yes	2c	4,236$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca61…dc6abacked Yes	1c	4,062$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.47	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	22cpaid	-69%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Yes	1c	3,956$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.31	54	27.8%15 W · 39 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes	1c	3,846$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	73	30.1%22 W · 51 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	0c	3,700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	444	23.9%106 W · 338 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfc7…2a87backed Yes	1c	3,364$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.47	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	1c	3,209$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.33	87	10.3%9 W · 78 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab68…1bb1backed Yes	2c	3,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	101	57.4%58 W · 43 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,938$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.88	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xba58…28c2backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	656	52.1%342 W · 314 L	+7.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf40…527abacked Yes	2c	2,410$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.65	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-61.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b5d…cdfcbacked Yes	2c	2,155$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4698…d7a5backed Yes	2c	2,098$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.97	536	55.4%297 W · 239 L	-28.6wins	-0.05per pick	61cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f79…c61cbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	265	41.9%111 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1a…e943backed Yes	2c	1,957$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.88	215	24.7%53 W · 162 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff8d…2898backed Yes	1c	1,875$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	41	22%9 W · 32 L	-5.6wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1400…ffd6backed Yes	1c	1,647$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes	1c	1,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	133	30.1%40 W · 93 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0df8…aae2backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	-6.9wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x8c98…0749backed Yes	2c	1,394$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c50…e0c9backed Yes	1c	1,271$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	421	31.6%133 W · 288 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x385b…b81dbacked Yes	2c	1,214$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes	1c	1,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	+114.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	1c	1,076$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-81.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe85d…67e1backed Yes	2c	975.1$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8027…2ee8backed Yes	1c	910.77$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	80	22.5%18 W · 62 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event