Tennis · resolved market

Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe354ff8177614be0058be24e704d5c9643f59e0b4319b46f9bc1f5e0f1322c8e

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 6, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $366,468
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $90,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $366,468 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8fab…3cabbacked Yes	1c	36,387$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.18	249	31.3%78 W · 171 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	27,949$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.14	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f2e…05a6backed Yes	1c	22,316$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.96	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes	1c	20,211$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.72	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+92%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	1c	17,384$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.37	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a1…978bbacked Yes	1c	15,354$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	1c	11,150$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f08…ead2backed Yes	1c	9,627$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.64	43	46.5%20 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68a0…7513backed Yes	1c	9,616$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.51	83	38.6%32 W · 51 L	-3.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd6…c2b8backed Yes	2c	8,787$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21af…f272backed Yes	2c	8,715$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	83	53%44 W · 39 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0850…cb8cbacked Yes	2c	8,238$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.95	73	30.1%22 W · 51 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	1c	7,450$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.46	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd4…4fa0backed Yes	1c	7,100$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	1c	6,450$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.96	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6727…2ac7backed Yes	2c	5,799$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	2c	5,721$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.31	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,142$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.38	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes	1c	4,788$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.8	165	29.1%48 W · 117 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	4,760$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.64	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes	1c	4,615$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.05	90	13.3%12 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	4,299$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.3	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa983…7ab4backed Yes	2c	3,989$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	145	45.5%66 W · 79 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…3578backed Yes	1c	3,754$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.43	29	3.4%1 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-92.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec5a…a319backed Yes	1c	3,000$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.71	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.2wins	+0.24per pick	16cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc53b…871ebacked Yes	1c	2,969$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	2c	2,900$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.89	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	1c	2,794$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	277	39%108 W · 169 L	-4.8wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7217…9c40backed Yes	1c	2,779$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2f5…75c4backed Yes	1c	2,593$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad1e…2ad4backed Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes	1c	2,435$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	156	57.1%89 W · 67 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca61…dc6abacked Yes	1c	2,377$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.05	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	22cpaid	-69%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x385b…b81dbacked Yes	1c	2,164$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a58…41a9backed Yes	1c	2,117$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1e7…8a71backed Yes	2c	2,024$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.4	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	+114.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	527	50.3%265 W · 262 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdb5…6210backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9da…3ef5backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-4.5wins	-0.17per pick	40cpaid	-65%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x93a0…74debacked Yes	2c	1,820$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.91	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Yes	1c	1,736$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	967	55.3%535 W · 432 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c50…e0c9backed Yes	1c	1,576$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	421	31.6%133 W · 288 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes	2c	1,512$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.41	93	3.2%3 W · 90 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x288c…3641backed Yes	2c	1,355$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	94	30.9%29 W · 65 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes	1c	1,160$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.8wins	-0.22per pick	40cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x788a…a3f7backed Yes	3c	1,150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	4cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	1c	1,075$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x039c…0450backed Yes	1c	999.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-70.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1081…8216backed Yes	2c	899.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	3cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked Yes	2c	885.62$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.94	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x19b7…9ee6backed Yes	2c	852.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	50	36%18 W · 32 L	+3.8wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f39…921fbacked Yes	2c	779.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	776.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0539…70f9backed Yes	2c	583.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	32cpaid	-69.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf934…8858backed Yes	2c	530.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.67	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event