Tennis · resolved market

Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0af158015b3bf95e9f4b5a05b61ff5f1ba408f650c38c33d6326e688c0aa05d2

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $366,788
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $69,007

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $366,788 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0e60…3badbacked Yes	2c	50,323$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$792	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	0%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x454c…bd22backed Yes	1c	39,724$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.76	93	3.2%3 W · 90 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-80.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Yes	1c	32,086$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	294	43.5%128 W · 166 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee11…53c9backed Yes	1c	22,261$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	238	36.1%86 W · 152 L	-8.5wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	1c	21,798$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.53	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…bb84backed Yes	2c	21,291$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.25	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Yes	1c	17,846$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.77	237	31.6%75 W · 162 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fab…3cabbacked Yes	1c	14,726$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.48	249	31.3%78 W · 171 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	11,311$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.4	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	1c	10,178$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.03	226	23.9%54 W · 172 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4502…9ebdbacked Yes	1c	8,461$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.57	57	1.8%1 W · 56 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	+94.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3f2e…05a6backed Yes	1c	7,576$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.73	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes	2c	5,139$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.09	155	56.8%88 W · 67 L	+7.9wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	0c	4,962$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f08…ead2backed Yes	1c	4,900$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e7d…b30ebacked Yes	2c	4,621$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8798…76cebacked Yes	2c	3,896$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.13	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-88.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x46c6…a5a6backed Yes	2c	3,869$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.51	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,799$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.67	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	0c	3,655$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0945…8470backed Yes	1c	3,333$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ca1…4268backed Yes	1c	3,328$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.93	152	30.9%47 W · 105 L	-9.3wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3684…c321backed Yes	1c	3,272$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1870…f3e5backed Yes	1c	3,023$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+3.3wins	+0.13per pick	31cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bad…4d53backed Yes	1c	3,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	165	29.1%48 W · 117 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c24…906ebacked Yes	1c	2,334$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.07	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0475…ed7abacked Yes	2c	2,167$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-4.8wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c50…e0c9backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	421	31.6%133 W · 288 L	-10.7wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x766d…53b9backed Yes	1c	2,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa48e…b476backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	173	39.9%69 W · 104 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes	1c	1,340$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	87	10.3%9 W · 78 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5eda…d453backed Yes	1c	1,318$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.8wins	-0.22per pick	40cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc20c…2b5dbacked Yes	1c	1,266$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	59	33.9%20 W · 39 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17eb…8db2backed Yes	1c	1,180$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa983…7ab4backed Yes	2c	715.96$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	145	45.5%66 W · 79 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event