Tennis · resolved market

Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87c22f297746a6c5984b88f963b315c255311425d18a80069a39272fbeb410bb

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $422,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $202,716

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $422,668 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3f2e…05a6backed Yes	2c	51,248$992 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$992.48	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ca4…348fbacked Yes	3c	40,040$1,085 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,084.95	294	43.5%128 W · 166 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e60…3badbacked Yes	2c	33,526$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.7	87	43.7%38 W · 49 L	+6.0wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	0%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa108…abd3backed Yes	2c	16,667$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25ed…ffe0backed Yes	2c	16,189$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.92	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+27.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	2c	13,814$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.84	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8918…8824backed Yes	2c	11,227$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.5	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.12per pick	46cpaid	+87.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	0c	10,694$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.28	444	23.9%106 W · 338 L	-5.5wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Yes	2c	7,832$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.89	177	46.9%83 W · 94 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	6,024$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.46	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Yes	2c	5,677$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.97	88	34.1%30 W · 58 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	5,594$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.76	82	8.5%7 W · 75 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b17…51b1backed Yes	2c	5,184$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.04	50	4%2 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5b0bbacked Yes	2c	5,115$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.18	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6ad…bc11backed Yes	2c	5,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b14…3ca3backed Yes	2c	4,950$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	498	47.2%235 W · 263 L	+12.7wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e7d…b30ebacked Yes	2c	4,579$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1058…9438backed Yes	2c	4,167$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+1.4wins	+0.10per pick	13cpaid	+51.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Yes	2c	4,000$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.9	318	49.7%158 W · 160 L	-8.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	+18%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca61…dc6abacked Yes	2c	3,750$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-3.4wins	-0.12per pick	22cpaid	-69%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8fab…3cabbacked Yes	2c	3,400$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.6	263	30.8%81 W · 182 L	-5.2wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes	2c	3,250$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.75	103	18.4%19 W · 84 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed Yes	3c	3,005$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.51	163	55.8%91 W · 72 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49b7…b0b3backed Yes	2c	2,778$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	44.8%13 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	2c	2,526$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.2	255	0.8%2 W · 253 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	2cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0767…f407backed Yes	0c	2,458$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	99	6.1%6 W · 93 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	-61.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x102d…ff61backed Yes	2c	2,244$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.88	57	3.5%2 W · 55 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Yes	2c	2,126$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	178	29.2%52 W · 126 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Yes	3c	2,001$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.01	308	27.6%85 W · 223 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93a0…74debacked Yes	2c	1,893$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.7	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-45.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb099…3560backed Yes	2c	1,702$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	54	11.1%6 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8835…7734backed Yes	3c	1,651$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2df…0cadbacked Yes	2c	1,650$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.99	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-21%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f78…cc0bbacked Yes	2c	1,574$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4269…bd80backed Yes	3c	1,570$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x78eb…9a2bbacked Yes	2c	1,563$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-27%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7395…3d6fbacked Yes	1c	1,540$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xceb6…e039backed Yes	2c	1,511$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	39	48.7%19 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…8f9fbacked Yes	1c	1,247$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	116	3.4%4 W · 112 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-91.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8043…121bbacked Yes	3c	1,173$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.19	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	25cpaid	-83.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdb5…6210backed Yes	1c	1,123$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+105.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	2c	1,100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	102	21.6%22 W · 80 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ed…1ae4backed Yes	2c	1,020$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.29	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	35cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b14…3e42backed Yes	2c	928.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60fe…4478backed Yes	2c	916.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.16per pick	41cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked Yes	2c	899.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	22cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf535…4103backed Yes	2c	863.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	57.1%8 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x596f…be6abacked Yes	2c	843.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b1…01e5backed Yes	2c	822.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x385b…b81dbacked Yes	2c	750$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc436…76c9backed Yes	2c	714.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d4c…2042backed Yes	3c	714.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.02	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	12cpaid	+20.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fa1…53f6backed Yes	2c	705.7$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	-52.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes	1c	696.56$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	106	22.6%24 W · 82 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	3c	629.55$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.37	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc93b…13a5backed Yes	3c	606.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	589.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	2c	580.7$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	93	4.3%4 W · 89 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-21%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ad…5403backed Yes	2c	559.17$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	21cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7906…be5dbacked Yes	3c	548.77$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	90	58.9%53 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	59cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	2c	538.89$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.32	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	-5.8wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4271…3f6dbacked Yes	2c	526.5$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	45	55.6%25 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf69…6226backed Yes	2c	506.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes	2c	505.76$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	56	19.6%11 W · 45 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1463…ce78backed Yes	2c	416.88$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes	3c	408.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.05	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 41 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event