Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ef05d1104a6f58d183368b6aa273a8b888dfa294c6e38a58f3ec6747cba56a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Alcaraz, Vacherot
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,180
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,180 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e2f…aaf8backed Vacherot | 27c | 52,806$14,185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,185.22 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 13,486$9,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,776.08 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Alcaraz | 74c | 13,467$10,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,436.89 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 7,976$5,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255.9 | 447 | 54.4%243 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27c…c081backed Alcaraz | 74c | 7,394$5,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,896.03 | 157 | 65.6%103 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…93fdbacked Alcaraz | 74c | 3,829$2,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.96 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Alcaraz | 79c | 3,058$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.19 | 1,277 | 56.6%723 W · 554 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4afb…ed2bbacked Vacherot | 22c | 3,000$670 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670 | 167 | 37.1%62 W · 105 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Vacherot | 22c | 2,114$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…3e7abacked Vacherot | 23c | 1,682$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.86 | 850 | 57.5%489 W · 361 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde87…11a2backed Alcaraz | 78c | 1,586$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.09 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x159a…d8dbbacked Alcaraz | 68c | 1,443$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.73 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Alcaraz | 72c | 1,232$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345 | 214 | 51.4%110 W · 104 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Alcaraz | 76c | 1,095$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.8 | 567 | 44.6%253 W · 314 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…0992backed Alcaraz | 72c | 1,021$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 656 | 51.8%340 W · 316 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Vacherot | 22c | 779.13$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8c…f75abacked Alcaraz | 78c | 632.56$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 327 | 63.9%209 W · 118 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed Alcaraz | 78c | 518.07$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.98 | 174 | 62.6%109 W · 65 L | +34.2wins | +0.20per pick | 43cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Alcaraz | 78c | 505.11$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.12 | 139 | 58.3%81 W · 58 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…0329backed Vacherot | 16c | 504.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.74 | 104 | 40.4%42 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…805fbacked Alcaraz | 77c | 486.98$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 378 | 49.2%186 W · 192 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7ce0backed Alcaraz | 72c | 471.12$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeab…9cd0backed Vacherot | 28c | 427.14$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 511 | 42.7%218 W · 293 L | +12.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…7afabacked Alcaraz | 72c | 386.45$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.21 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Vacherot | 24c | 380.53$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.54 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Vacherot | 23c | 356.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.37 | 1,579 | 39.8%629 W · 950 L | -34.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 345.28$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Alcaraz | 68c | 339.98$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.19 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Alcaraz | 68c | 298.48$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.54 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…31efbacked Vacherot | 34c | 282.78$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…78f8backed Vacherot | 37c | 262.28$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 436 | 47.2%206 W · 230 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +53.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e0…ecc4backed Alcaraz | 77c | 256.16$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.92 | 47 | 72.3%34 W · 13 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 249.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 526 | 61.2%322 W · 204 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…75abbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 249.97$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.49 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0185…3735backed Vacherot | 29c | 243.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Vacherot | 16c | 219.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 142 | 43%61 W · 81 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Alcaraz | 78c | 217.1$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 216 | 55.6%120 W · 96 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…50aabacked Alcaraz | 78c | 206.6$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Alcaraz | 79c | 196.78$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.82 | 372 | 57.5%214 W · 158 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef8…3a02backed Alcaraz | 76c | 181.97$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.87 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Alcaraz | 76c | 170$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 588 | 59%347 W · 241 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x007f…640fbacked Alcaraz | 78c | 126.51$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Vacherot | 34c | 121.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7a…52c9backed Alcaraz | 72c | 109.24$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6aaa…ddfdbacked Alcaraz | 78c | 107.98$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 273 | 46.5%127 W · 146 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b89…0d9cbacked Alcaraz | 65c | 103.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Alcaraz | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 358 | 39.4%141 W · 217 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…e4ffbacked Vacherot | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Alcaraz | 78c | 98.68$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 584 | 38.2%223 W · 361 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a0…c52bbacked Vacherot | 27c | 89.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Alcaraz | 69c | 88.33$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Vacherot | 22c | 87.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed Alcaraz | 72c | 81.93$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Alcaraz | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Alcaraz | 75c | 68.22$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 701 | 48.2%338 W · 363 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47d0…0b0fbacked Vacherot | 36c | 66.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c9…9ee4backed Vacherot | 22c | 64.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 357 | 30.5%109 W · 248 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb882…fcabbacked Alcaraz | 72c | 63.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Vacherot | 25c | 61.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | -74.2wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…4e3fbacked Alcaraz | 75c | 59.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Vacherot | 28c | 58.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdd41…5afebacked Alcaraz | 72c | 56.15$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8205…5067backed Vacherot | 35c | 55.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Vacherot | 27c | 54.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,414 | 41.1%581 W · 833 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…b219backed Alcaraz | 72c | 35.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 124 | 63.7%79 W · 45 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4168…a631backed Alcaraz | 78c | 31.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…8a75backed Alcaraz | 78c | 31.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab3…d47cbacked Alcaraz | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ad…795cbacked Alcaraz | 70c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 242 | 59.9%145 W · 97 L | -12.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Alcaraz | 78c | 21.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.73 | 289 | 58.1%168 W · 121 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Alcaraz | 69c | 20.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Alcaraz | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f3…110abacked Alcaraz | 70c | 14.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)this page
- Alcaraz vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Vacherot: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin VacherotCarlos Alcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs VacherotAlcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.