Tennis · resolved market
Carlos Alcaraz vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a36c17981fe3170301195aa27984042fad740b04e74e35676354e90ea6902bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x27b0…fc67backed Over 2.5 | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 312 | 34.6%108 W · 204 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over 2.5 | 19c | 2,897$547 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.13 | 7,774 | 47.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L | +40.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under 2.5 | 79c | 1,807$1,434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.86 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87a8…2dedbacked Over 2.5 | 21c | 742.16$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.17 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over 2.5 | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 4,090 | 39.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L | +95.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over 2.5 | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | +30.5wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over 2.5 | 17c | 456.22$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 3,891 | 35%1,362 W · 2,529 L | +93.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…e2e6backed Under 2.5 | 75c | 449.93$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c6…367dbacked Over 2.5 | 27c | 354.31$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 76 | 18.4%14 W · 62 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3b…b190backed Over 2.5 | 25c | 344.04$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over 2.5 | 18c | 278.52$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.12 | 9,406 | 44.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L | -245.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35a7…c4eebacked Over 2.5 | 23c | 150.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…57a3backed Under 2.5 | 76c | 128.25$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +4.7wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb20…a151backed Under 2.5 | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8544…94d6backed Over 2.5 | 40c | 97.75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Over 2.5 | 38c | 85.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e5…3248backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 59.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a66…48c7backed Under 2.5 | 74c | 33.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90c9…476dbacked Under 2.5 | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a9…0c9abacked Under 2.5 | 65c | 19.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 127 | 64.6%82 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Carlos Alcaraz vs. Valentin Vacherot: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Alcaraz vs. Vacherot: Match O/U 21.5Under won
- Alcaraz vs. Vacherot: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin VacherotCarlos Alcaraz won
- Set 1 Winner: Alcaraz vs VacherotAlcaraz won
- Set Handicap: Alcaraz (-1.5) vs Vacherot (+1.5)Alcaraz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.