AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman testify against Musk?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57b002a8ddd41d24c1bfb392714e2338e30abd2a842fa71b9154a0dc4b847e6d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,518
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 1c | 1,491$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd416…d9e2backed Yes | 78c | 1,461$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,070$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.66 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…c7bdbacked No | 6c | 736.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…e97bbacked No | 41c | 730.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 17c | 662.41$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.31 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 8c | 559.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 27c | 473.16$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…22a1backed No | 16c | 356.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 13c | 349.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 56c | 315.85$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…3f0ebacked No | 19c | 299.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked No | 15c | 267.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 14c | 234$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…35f0backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 14c | 115.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe193…cc85backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9826…e7febacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Yes | 80c | 83.37$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 71c | 82.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Yes | 68c | 63.35$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…f2d0backed No | 69c | 58.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 68c | 55.55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.78 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 28c | 53.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa20b…390bbacked No | 29c | 49.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbccc…4f41backed Yes | 80c | 22.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738a…5996backed Yes | 67c | 21.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 21.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0731…5194backed Yes | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.