Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d035409ceebaf1c8d5b372e652860b13dcf0ed31d93000acd173da3449d167d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,362
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,362 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 322.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.16 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 229$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.43 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 225.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.26 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 198.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.06 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 193$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 20c | 173.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 63c | 173.43$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 69c | 112$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 14c | 108.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.08 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 49c | 105$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.05 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 60c | 98.38$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 96.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 14c | 74.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.73 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…fd8dbacked Yes | 25c | 63.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 51.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.75 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 55c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 47.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 33c | 45.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.71 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 29c | 40.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 40.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 79c | 32.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 49c | 30.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.38 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 58c | 30.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1359…7e7bbacked No | 72c | 28.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 117 | 74.4%87 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 75cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 74c | 27.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 71c | 27.15$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…f2d0backed Yes | 76c | 26.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 26.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed No | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd61…02d4backed No | 68c | 20.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac0…ace0backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 71°F or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be 90°F or higher on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 72-73°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.