TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,344
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$60,705

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,344 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbda1…827fbacked Yes18c6,594$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.0230919.4%60 W · 249 L-17.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-50.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No80c1,428$1,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.431649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2d91…f592backed Yes14c1,393$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.12407.5%3 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes8c790.81$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8557614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x00ea…4d20backed Yes14c698.88$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.79933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes23c590.5$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.081,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes15c520.9$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.177,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes21c450.92$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.861,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes17c450.44$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4739535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes10c392.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5212624.6%31 W · 95 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed Yes19c316.74$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9214926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes16c314.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes18c298.88$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.142,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f2…09babacked No80c247.84$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.663751.4%19 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c237.91$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.2612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6400…331abacked No77c220.36$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.942469.1%293 W · 131 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed Yes14c219.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.714944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6bf…81a6backed Yes20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes20c199.99$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.560236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed No78c198.46$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.665846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec42…5ffbbacked No80c191.12$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7415176.8%116 W · 35 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick76cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes12c189.21$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.275,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe122…7612backed Yes20c187.89$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.78714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.30per pick44cpaid-81.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes30c186.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.949344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes17c175.99$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xc967…91d5backed Yes12c166.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.997913.9%11 W · 68 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No76c164.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.7498571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde5e…cb4ebacked Yes17c152.02$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.69140%0 W · 14 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes26c145.48$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5918534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes18c130.62$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.782,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd39…43a8backed Yes14c129.31$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0312317.9%22 W · 101 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes18c127.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.955733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xade7…3159backed Yes13c126.53$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.832231.8%7 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xff74…5de4backed Yes20c126.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8465934.1%225 W · 434 L+36.6wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes18c126.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.245111.8%6 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa996…e251backed No80c123.14$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.18580%4 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick78cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes24c121.71$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.538643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No80c121.62$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.659,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0484…4e0cbacked Yes22c110.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.24812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1395…b329backed Yes22c109.53$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.142536%9 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fdc…a29abacked Yes22c107.01$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.541513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick25cpaid-79.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No78c106.59$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.6199949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68db…44f0backed No73c105.15$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.8519148.2%92 W · 99 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6606…0195backed Yes13c103.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5917644.3%78 W · 98 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes23c100.43$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.619750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da3…95a0backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+23.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1260…b631backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…9d7abacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbecb…d052backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dc6…7bc7backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-36%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce96…d2f1backed Yes21c98.69$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.14837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes31c98.18$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.855841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a3b…35a2backed No80c98$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes15c97.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.895228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No78c96.94$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.877,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes21c95.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8651321.2%109 W · 404 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf876…8975backed Yes21c95.23$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205332.1%17 W · 36 L-5.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-40.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c64…be43backed Yes22c92.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5614461.8%89 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes12c90.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5646232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c7e…c08ebacked No79c86.86$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.3457038.1%217 W · 353 L-40.7wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bbb…246dbacked No70c85.95$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.611330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes28c84.57$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.826738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee38…fd31backed No79c76.13$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.233557.1%20 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes21c75.4$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6312033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ff6…8ac5backed Yes22c75.18$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.547034.3%24 W · 46 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked Yes20c72.08$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4220942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9480…6797backed Yes19c70.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5eb6backed No78c69.51$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0551762.3%322 W · 195 L-15.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda99…322fbacked Yes19c67.78$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.889113.2%12 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec0…63d6backed Yes22c63.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-10.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes23c62.76$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed No78c62.34$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.421866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed No78c61.52$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.641,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes25c61.49$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6128648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa73…c2c4backed Yes18c60.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.881250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+107.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes22c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.223035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd228…ea6fbacked No78c57.5$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5822934.1%78 W · 151 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c13…31a3backed Yes30c57.01$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.964129.3%12 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fa4…8886backed No78c53.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a15…2e27backed No78c52.9$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x843d…89bcbacked Yes19c52.84$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.223661.1%22 W · 14 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xffe0…919ebacked No77c50.59$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.57758.4%45 W · 32 L+0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…25cabacked Yes26c49.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312233.6%41 W · 81 L-10.0wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-16.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36f6…ae14backed No77c49.37$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3511663.8%74 W · 42 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x35c4…d144backed No76c49.13$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.911,25562.5%785 W · 470 L+99.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe00f…abd9backed Yes29c48.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9412147.9%58 W · 63 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x477f…9144backed Yes22c45.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.249741.2%40 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes25c45.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4826434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26fe…95f8backed Yes33c42.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x532a…ea14backed Yes30c41.85$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed No63c39.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7911956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No76c35.08$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4241767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No73c33.52$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0957232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed No61c30.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9434533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.34,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f21…c693backed No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.913167.9%89 W · 42 L+15.5wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No74c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.872466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa1e5…b209backed Yes44c28.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.465521.8%12 W · 43 L-12.8wins-0.23per pick45cpaid-57.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xf040…d11fbacked No70c27.63$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.181266.7%8 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.