TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,838
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,662

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,838 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72d0…98e2backed No0c10,801$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No0c4,757$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3547136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes17c2,281$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,888.0757614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2168…c154backed No2c2,082$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.381450%7 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes20c1,357$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.2842130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes40c904.66$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.585,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x88a4…d091backed Yes32c775.66$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.74219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes29c606.78$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.311,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed Yes44c544.96$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.341866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes39c528.13$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$324.611,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes49c486.5$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.032,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x380b…bfa8backed Yes9c454.94$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.992030%6 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+103.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa312…0357backed Yes33c429.66$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.923441.2%14 W · 20 L+4.9wins+0.15per pick27cpaid+82.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x293e…9962backed Yes70c411.46$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.5715759.2%93 W · 64 L+12.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+26.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes31c401.81$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes32c400.77$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.687,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes15c377.33$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.582,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No53c370.28$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e5c…d892backed Yes31c366.22$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.2257044.9%256 W · 314 L+36.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc775…6b22backed No6c332.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+118.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes29c325.54$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.6131341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes23c315.84$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.8323035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No79c312.32$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.6631649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No64c292.41$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.852,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a26…c335backed Yes16c260.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.8686226.8%231 W · 631 L+28.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+30.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8887…681bbacked Yes37c244.68$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.0513424.6%33 W · 101 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes19c238.95$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.982832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes37c238.08$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.63,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes36c222.51$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.8914062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes12c213.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.631062.6%194 W · 116 L+38.4wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+33.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d62…6690backed Yes35c211.59$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick19cpaid+180.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No62c200.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.481,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a99…e614backed Yes15c199.46$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.5418116.6%30 W · 151 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+26.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes15c198.32$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.7636930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc41…108fbacked Yes33c191.83$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.519852%51 W · 47 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce9a…c17abacked Yes34c190.03$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.77616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes25c184.99$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.7545148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No56c182.47$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.421,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes30c180$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12632132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes18c177.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.121,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes21c177.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.989,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda91…d760backed Yes18c169.02$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.261,01040.3%407 W · 603 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes15c162.84$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9810,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes29c152.6$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10819541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe233…c70bbacked No71c152.44$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5454966.7%366 W · 183 L-27.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes30c151.55$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.941,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2347…5adfbacked Yes27c150.75$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.6311938.7%46 W · 73 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42f7…dae7backed Yes12c147.02$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+404.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb97d…d445backed Yes22c144.9$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.871827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bda…8da4backed Yes13c140.46$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+677.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No79c140.3$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.724,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes10c140.14$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.1396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes48c137.05$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6520750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce96…d2f1backed Yes19c134.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.24837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes33c129.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.3374338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes31c126.44$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.31,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2f0…8994backed Yes33c120.48$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.3837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes11c115$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.82419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e24…7379backed Yes32c114.5$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6145619.1%87 W · 369 L-11.8wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes28c111.55$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.46719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a99…1838backed No79c110.25$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.179770.1%68 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick75cpaid-7.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a94…0a7bbacked Yes11c109.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.561816.7%3 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.22per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x43b6…77a7backed Yes21c109.64$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.629344.1%41 W · 52 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a8…aff0backed No46c108$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6814944.3%66 W · 83 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a91…983fbacked No72c107.81$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.6213942.4%59 W · 80 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bb…e181backed Yes16c107.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5612033.3%40 W · 80 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1bd…b85abacked Yes22c104.42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.043259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes28c100.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.2529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa77c…ddccbacked No75c100$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.41per pick57cpaid-77.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x90c4…46d8backed Yes24c100$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763050%15 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes28c99.58$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.585228.8%15 W · 37 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcde1…76d5backed Yes27c98.37$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No71c98.26$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.649277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No51c97.65$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.816456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes22c97.38$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.761929.1%180 W · 439 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2671…a5fabacked No58c96.87$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1919059.5%113 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…4c83backed Yes22c96.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44535.6%16 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid+0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x532a…ea14backed Yes25c96.07$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.21728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-24.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes52c95.19$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8398236.7%360 W · 622 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b2d…7b0abacked Yes19c94.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.161442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked Yes20c93.84$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4759440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00ea…4d20backed Yes50c93.1$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.55933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+20.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2c…6da7backed No54c89.06$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef40…b116backed No72c88.76$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5314926.2%39 W · 110 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0f18…5b28backed Yes67c85.64$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2126566.4%176 W · 89 L+13.0wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes32c84.96$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95d4…839abacked Yes34c83.52$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.428119.9%56 W · 225 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c83.26$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.839,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92ba…cf4dbacked Yes35c80.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.941662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes32c80.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.3728648.3%138 W · 148 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes27c80.26$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes29c79.07$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.143,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x873f…ca06backed Yes20c79.06$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.251553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb74…2402backed Yes33c78.41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.191241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+29.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa51c…7427backed Yes48c77.31$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.341442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes29c76.21$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.822,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No62c74.31$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0727167.2%182 W · 89 L+1.2wins0.00per pick67cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb060…9572backed Yes28c73.87$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.879750.5%49 W · 48 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b9…b47fbacked Yes40c73.06$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.68048.8%39 W · 41 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x509b…c90cbacked Yes38c65.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.93650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.