Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3951bd8b832b119ab5d47b088b9094e0e32a3b7a030898659eba3b6b706b3c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 66c | 1,245$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.44 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed No | 65c | 935.29$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.77 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 794.9$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 37c | 519.43$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.75 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 500.79$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.3 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 32c | 413.09$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.5 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 48c | 279.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed Yes | 22c | 274.96$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.66 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 47c | 253.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.96 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…f2d0backed No | 71c | 252.92$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.8 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 42c | 236.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…afc3backed No | 52c | 215.01$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.07 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 69c | 213.33$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.96 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 79c | 203.87$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 27c | 172.33$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.85 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 55c | 166.67$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 44c | 166.24$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.26 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…48d9backed No | 69c | 148.26$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 24c | 144.12$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 133.21$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.06 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 131.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 50c | 131.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked No | 62c | 130.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 32c | 113.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 37c | 112.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…acf6backed Yes | 35c | 108.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 42c | 102$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 37c | 99.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 55c | 94.29$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 57c | 94.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.43 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 41c | 93.16$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 92.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 87.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 86.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 26c | 84.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 60c | 83.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.83 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 49c | 82.14$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 24c | 81.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 79.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 38c | 78.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 29c | 76.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.01 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 48c | 75.05$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.8 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 22c | 72.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 40c | 70.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 70.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 33c | 67.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 29c | 62.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 62c | 62.05$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 29c | 61.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…edcfbacked No | 67c | 60.86$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 27c | 60.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 34c | 60.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes | 36c | 55.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 53.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 75c | 52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf93…5d2abacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 89 | 62.9%56 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 33c | 48.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 32c | 47.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 46.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd80…4f46backed Yes | 27c | 40.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 63c | 39.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 35c | 37.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 35c | 36.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 59c | 34.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 33.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26e…33cabacked Yes | 34c | 32.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.19per pick | 23cpaid | +104.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 46c | 32.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 63c | 30.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 38c | 30.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…e014backed No | 65c | 28.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98df…7870backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0171…0a60backed Yes | 56c | 26.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 25.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 24.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 53c | 22.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 59c | 22.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 73c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 20.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.