TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$25,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$26,921

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x182a…f847backed No66c1,245$823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.4418762.6%117 W · 70 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010634.9%37 W · 69 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+59.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…7908backed No65c935.29$608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.7722857.5%131 W · 97 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes18c794.9$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8882…03fbbacked Yes37c519.43$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.7551733.3%172 W · 345 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No60c500.79$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.32,08651.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L-45.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes32c413.09$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.55,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes48c279.01$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.951,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc8d…0939backed Yes22c274.96$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.665226.9%14 W · 38 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x438a…61c4backed Yes47c253.03$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9623143.3%100 W · 131 L+19.0wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+36.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2700…f2d0backed No71c252.92$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.81866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f19…e819backed Yes42c236.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10052935.7%189 W · 340 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8162…afc3backed No52c215.01$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.073971.8%28 W · 11 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick62cpaid+11.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e16…27c0backed Yes69c213.33$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9629748.5%144 W · 153 L+18.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed No79c203.87$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4353951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes27c172.33$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.852,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca07…6269backed Yes55c166.67$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.6771649.4%354 W · 362 L-18.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes44c166.24$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.261,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes23c152.17$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.517,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf612…48d9backed No69c148.26$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.28475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed No24c144.12$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.1682268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No68c133.21$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.063,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No31c131.99$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$913,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9006…9fb8backed Yes50c131.49$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2927037.4%101 W · 169 L+12.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+7.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1546…778bbacked No62c130.23$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.935429.9%106 W · 248 L-17.6wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-23.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes32c113.86$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.062,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes37c112.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.342,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xab38…acf6backed Yes35c108.32$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.95040%20 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No42c102$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.351,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x818b…1646backed Yes41c99.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110850.9%55 W · 53 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes37c99.98$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9923436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes55c94.29$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.862,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes57c94.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4324732%79 W · 168 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9196…d934backed Yes41c93.16$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1364460.6%390 W · 254 L+92.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+36.4%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes33c92.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.463,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes17c87.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.228,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No42c86.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.2712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No26c84.2$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.282,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd7…b347backed No60c83.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.83966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes49c82.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012849.2%63 W · 65 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes24c81.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.683743.2%16 W · 21 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No28c79.47$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.986,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No63c79.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3783360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes38c78.77$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.692,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No29c76.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.012,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes48c75.05$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.81,38565.8%911 W · 474 L+62.8wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+11.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c75$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.51,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No61c74$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.165,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes22c72.16$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.871,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6854…67d0backed No40c70.31$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2361752.8%326 W · 291 L-1.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No64c70.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9910,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes33c67.06$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.332,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed Yes29c62.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3741051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed No62c62.05$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5848149.5%238 W · 243 L-26.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7615…308abacked No29c61.34$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.3518441.3%76 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No63c61$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5763757.6%367 W · 270 L+1.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f13…edcfbacked No67c60.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.021687.5%14 W · 2 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+55.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes27c60.07$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2739346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes34c60.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.573,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4bf…ef7cbacked Yes36c55.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-37%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No63c55$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4389661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes35c53.26$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.679,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed22…6450backed No75c52$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1343139.2%169 W · 262 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb664…abbdbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8144646.2%206 W · 240 L-16.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf93…5d2abacked No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.58962.9%56 W · 33 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83cd…e218backed Yes54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279448.9%46 W · 48 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.560519.7%119 W · 486 L-5.8wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes33c48.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes26c48$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d2e…f022backed Yes32c47.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.2318033.9%61 W · 119 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes32c46.02$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.772,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd80…4f46backed Yes27c40.18$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1120%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea5…2cf0backed No63c39.79$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.825358.9%149 W · 104 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No35c37.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.134,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No35c36.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.463,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked No59c34.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.3357545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x49c4…db5bbacked No60c33.34$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.341,27536.5%465 W · 810 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc26e…33cabacked Yes34c32.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.131741.2%7 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick23cpaid+104.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5f61…840abacked Yes46c32.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7837570.7%265 W · 110 L+62.7wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0xb537…14ccbacked No63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7541460.1%249 W · 165 L-21.5wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-8.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf237…f6a5backed No63c30.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.423076.7%23 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick62cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x885f…7bf9backed Yes38c30.82$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7154656.4%308 W · 238 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No65c30.73$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.732,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c28…a73bbacked Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32722.2%6 W · 21 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick17cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes38c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.465627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No60c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.91,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No79c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.211,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8943842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6243…e014backed No65c28.6$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8823243.5%101 W · 131 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+25%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x98df…7870backed No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.061850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11a4…f434backed No74c27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9647569.5%330 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0171…0a60backed Yes56c26.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No64c25.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.98,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.751,27147.6%605 W · 666 L-25.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c24.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.742,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No53c22.43$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.531,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No59c22.21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.0399962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No70c21.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.432,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No73c20.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4971464.3%459 W · 255 L-37.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No62c20.02$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.611,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.