Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x57bed688a9a8c1a27c0554fc784e15687fbbcf94cb722374db09b1190e455e27
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,397
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,397 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc84…a0d2backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 39c | 431.89$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 19c | 199.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 18c | 153.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 80c | 133.87$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 130.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 129$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 45c | 125.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 53c | 122.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 109.24$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 45c | 105.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 35c | 102.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed No | 61c | 102$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 24c | 100.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 100.1$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…e6e3backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 89.1$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 23c | 83.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.06 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 80.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 50c | 79.59$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 71c | 78.23$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 35c | 77.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.29 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1e…0567backed No | 55c | 74.92$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.91 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 74$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 39c | 71.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 36c | 69.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 66.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 66.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 57c | 64.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 29c | 60.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed No | 68c | 58.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 39c | 56.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 79c | 53.1$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 61c | 52.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 52c | 50.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…a22fbacked Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 45c | 44.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd98…c007backed Yes | 43c | 43.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 71c | 42.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 26c | 39.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 30c | 38.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc399…53abbacked No | 71c | 36.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -8.5wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 35.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf06…f4c4backed Yes | 38c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 50c | 31.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bc…c1b8backed No | 79c | 31.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 37c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 39c | 29.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 75c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 52c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 76c | 22.65$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 65c | 22.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 257 | 66.1%170 W · 87 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…6cefbacked No | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.