Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc8ba8471a40fa59d97c5b6217caf6c42f01daf6cdb9a74f48d4ae152d15ba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 383.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.1 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 309.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 42c | 306.85$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked No | 78c | 232.81$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.56 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 228.11$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.27 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 8c | 225.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.51 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 13c | 221.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 194.49$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 185.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.43 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 40c | 177.12$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.51 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 59c | 169$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 43c | 152.9$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.26 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 16c | 149.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.21 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 16c | 141.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 13c | 139.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.99 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 18c | 128.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.48 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…0939backed No | 56c | 114.3$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -37%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 72c | 112.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.79 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 11c | 108.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 14c | 105.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.71 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8344…ed07backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +210.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 15c | 89.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.76 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 29c | 85.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 25c | 81.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.9 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 25c | 77.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.96 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 14c | 75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 30c | 57.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24f…a22fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 73c | 48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 38c | 36.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 31.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 62c | 26.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 67c | 25.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or below on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.