Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37f5ccbbe61d62c4cb40989b386a8634d9485360a4760cf4a4abd06161538279
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $61,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa7a5…859cbacked No | 34c | 3,802$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,295.77 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 33c | 2,442$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.77 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 73c | 1,637$1,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.79 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 28c | 1,460$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,054.31 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 1,172$684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$683.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 73c | 953.98$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.36 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 31c | 645.25$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.57 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed Yes | 34c | 491.85$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.08 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a07…923fbacked No | 77c | 463.96$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.7 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 29c | 430.73$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.13 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked Yes | 43c | 418.77$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.27 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 25c | 397.94$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.45 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked No | 78c | 382.76$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 363.3$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.13 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 29c | 348.94$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.22 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848c…5a45backed Yes | 27c | 337.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.66 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed No | 46c | 336.06$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.06 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 25c | 335.18$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.79 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked No | 74c | 319.64$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 319.57$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.79 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306e…3a7cbacked No | 73c | 318.79$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.91 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked No | 75c | 313.46$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.1 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 22c | 303.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked No | 6c | 300.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 8c | 299.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…ee1abacked No | 61c | 299.81$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 70c | 298.92$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 297.05$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 8c | 287.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 282.3$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7f86backed Yes | 31c | 258.33$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.43 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 248.06$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.43 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1df8…6c4ebacked Yes | 35c | 233.64$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.9 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cf7…36d6backed Yes | 44c | 228.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.37 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 26c | 225.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.84 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 29c | 218.72$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes | 30c | 209.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.18 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.99 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 32c | 195.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 78c | 177.92$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.23 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 58c | 172.86$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.89 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 38c | 158.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 156.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.23 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 14c | 155.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 65c | 149.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.19 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.49 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…9534backed Yes | 45c | 147.59$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.45 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x172e…997fbacked Yes | 46c | 142.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 8c | 142.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 30c | 141.87$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 77c | 141.58$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 60c | 129.91$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.35 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 68c | 129.05$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…1ea9backed Yes | 76c | 129.01$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 155 | 70.3%109 W · 46 L | +23.6wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 56c | 128.91$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.05 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed No | 79c | 128.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.06 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 28c | 128.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed No | 70c | 125.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.29 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 33c | 125.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 74c | 125.22$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa3…0d65backed No | 80c | 124.32$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.46 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…d0f1backed Yes | 28c | 121.95$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.54 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 23c | 120$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 24c | 112.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 10c | 112.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed Yes | 23c | 108.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.62 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 35c | 103.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 18c | 100.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.61 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 17c | 99.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 34c | 99.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 23c | 98.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 28c | 96.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.34 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 29c | 95.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 71c | 93.66$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.38 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71d5…55f7backed Yes | 32c | 93.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 21c | 93.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.6 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 32c | 90$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded8…ae40backed Yes | 21c | 89.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.69 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…f2d0backed Yes | 70c | 87.65$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc118…18e2backed Yes | 22c | 87.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.92 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +26.2wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +112.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ff84backed Yes | 33c | 86.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.87 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d5…ff97backed No | 71c | 85.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.45 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…ada6backed Yes | 22c | 85.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 30c | 84.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…f73fbacked Yes | 32c | 84.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 28c | 84.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.71 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5121…a989backed No | 77c | 83.63$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 26c | 82.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 29c | 79.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7be4…8477backed Yes | 14c | 79.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966f…175bbacked Yes | 25c | 75.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…de1cbacked Yes | 41c | 73.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.43 | 146 | 45.2%66 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…737abacked Yes | 62c | 72.29$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed No | 60c | 71.84$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.36 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 35c | 70.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 21c | 70.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.