Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc559da054a7ea0f6c6ff589772d1c8a8953c4586d6aad1a9cc0be8866dd12de0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,168
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,168 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef56…d6eabacked Yes | 24c | 1,359$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 711.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 18c | 537.94$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 432.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…aa5dbacked Yes | 11c | 416.59$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 13c | 392.39$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.86 | 99 | 19.2%19 W · 80 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 14c | 355.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 7c | 337.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…d496backed Yes | 12c | 297.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 15c | 297.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 13c | 295.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 291.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed Yes | 7c | 257.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 14c | 253.19$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 17c | 251.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 12c | 196.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…ae1dbacked Yes | 16c | 175.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +93%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 19c | 169.53$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b66…db0abacked Yes | 14c | 155.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 17c | 154.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 24c | 139.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d5…ff97backed Yes | 19c | 123.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -3.3wins | -0.41per pick | 54cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2d…32c9backed Yes | 19c | 119.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07ac…ab30backed Yes | 17c | 118.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x609f…ada6backed Yes | 12c | 118.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 18c | 115.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 11c | 107.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 16c | 106.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…1613backed Yes | 12c | 104.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…efc5backed Yes | 11c | 100.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff69…16b5backed No | 78c | 100.3$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0344…7f86backed Yes | 12c | 91.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a3…a59bbacked Yes | 12c | 90.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7e35backed Yes | 12c | 86.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 56 | 28.6%16 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 85.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked Yes | 14c | 85.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 19c | 82.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 13c | 82.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8855…ee7bbacked Yes | 13c | 77.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 15c | 76.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…eed5backed Yes | 24c | 73.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 21c | 72.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 21c | 68.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f6…696abacked Yes | 16c | 68.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 22c | 57.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 19c | 53.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4dc7backed No | 80c | 49$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 76c | 45.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed No | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…bc23backed No | 80c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 69cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec42…5ffbbacked No | 78c | 22.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 151 | 76.8%116 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 76cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…12e4backed No | 48c | 21.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.2wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 80c | 21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 76c | 17.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…4883backed No | 77c | 17.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 75 | 34.7%26 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 76c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 146 | 63%92 W · 54 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e9…15dcbacked No | 80c | 14.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f7…7bb4backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.