TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,087
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,242

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,087 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 213 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc629…c3e5backed Yes3c1,682$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.03825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-35.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No52c816.14$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.3612,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdff6…d9b1backed Yes75c652.84$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes7c554.67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.283,85923.4%903 W · 2,956 L+128.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes5c478.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.432,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes7c450.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3586420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb964…927fbacked Yes7c403.15$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4218327.3%50 W · 133 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-11.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0501…73e1backed Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes38c390.6$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.995427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes56c390.4$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21714941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94ce…edf2backed Yes6c382.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.645648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick40cpaid-3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf229…d5f7backed Yes34c350.55$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.193928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-3.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd0d…1fb4backed Yes6c335.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7224238%92 W · 150 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes54c329.45$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.921,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes4c321.9$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.58708.6%6 W · 64 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes54c301.17$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.025,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes8c300$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241,40127.3%383 W · 1,018 L+69.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4789…b286backed Yes42c244.01$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.097524%18 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-32.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed Yes60c243.34$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.9911249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes47c242.12$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.1616437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade9…1990backed Yes8c238.15$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.91010%1 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-72.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0344…7f86backed Yes56c236.77$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.661435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b28…d021backed Yes8c236.46$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9428718.5%53 W · 234 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick13cpaid+113.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf79…7376backed Yes39c219.1$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.234738.3%18 W · 29 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbe9…6e7cbacked Yes57c217.29$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.153129%9 W · 22 L-5.8wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-43.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes57c216.32$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.969239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed Yes63c206.52$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.112,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes31c205.13$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.675050%25 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes41c199.99$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes50c188$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1429732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes53c184.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2145238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes26c182.26$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9853525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf46e…2f80backed Yes60c181.72$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.621952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes47c179.03$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.145846.6%27 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes19c178.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6318814.4%27 W · 161 L-14.7wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-14.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2725…7aa0backed Yes54c176.31$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.41825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98cd…c987backed Yes55c174.23$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.48837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes45c173.7$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.051,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbc6…67d8backed Yes27c170.58$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.21812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-43.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8d2…39b0backed Yes58c165.48$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.797146.5%33 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes53c162.57$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5318255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes35c154.9$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No38c153.46$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.3948743.7%213 W · 274 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No49c152.93$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.731,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x848c…5a45backed Yes64c151.95$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.672832.1%9 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…1f9bbacked Yes64c149.78$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.443250%16 W · 16 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No48c148.66$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.842,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51e…6465backed No60c147.4$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.0937533.6%126 W · 249 L-11.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes42c146.69$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.818534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9612…205abacked No66c146.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.76633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-53.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b34…8208backed Yes9c144.29$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.281127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+53.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6d5…ff97backed Yes68c142.38$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-81.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked No58c138.41$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.171,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No54c131.87$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.173,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes74c131.51$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.412152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x108f…7136backed Yes61c126.03$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.884841.7%20 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+24.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes60c119.53$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7245148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes21c112.35$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4110843.5%47 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa128…541ebacked No46c110$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.82944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes61c108.58$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2320534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf71a…ac2fbacked Yes59c104.84$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.612544%11 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed Yes66c103.5$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.5635465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c103.11$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.982,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b66…db0abacked Yes26c100.1$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.182250%11 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes66c99.59$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.733225%8 W · 24 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-44.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7d1…0e35backed Yes38c98.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.333855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…1a73backed Yes66c95.24$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.3118668.8%128 W · 58 L+27.3wins+0.15per pick54cpaid+25.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xec2f…43a2backed No52c95.2$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No75c95.1$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.4735058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2936…6c5fbacked No63c90.06$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.2834250.6%173 W · 169 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes55c87.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7311223.2%26 W · 86 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-18.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5407…dbc0backed No72c86.58$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.6816764.1%107 W · 60 L-13.7wins-0.08per pick72cpaid-12.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2354…fab1backed Yes68c85.22$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0914062.9%88 W · 52 L+11.8wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7ce3…1689backed Yes56c82.18$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.7247432.5%154 W · 320 L+20.2wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x747c…443bbacked Yes58c81.1$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.948643%37 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes60c80.28$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07ac…ab30backed Yes33c79.59$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.246719.4%13 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dc6…d496backed Yes47c75.42$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.326657.6%38 W · 28 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4afa…b3ccbacked Yes45c75.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.697445.9%34 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6526…9c80backed Yes69c75.1$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.8212337.4%46 W · 77 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc501…d0f1backed Yes37c74.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.052441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44c9…ca41backed Yes56c74.72$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes28c71.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d0…5009backed No43c70.21$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92eb…9668backed Yes52c69.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2810936.7%40 W · 69 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes47c67.14$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6165043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes30c66.84$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.299346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c65.47$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.029,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x380b…09d2backed Yes45c64.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick63cpaid-42.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4484…a7a5backed Yes54c64.27$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c63.99$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.942,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5577…a6cbbacked Yes38c61.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes51c60.54$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.983135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb074…9fb3backed Yes64c59.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9622454.5%122 W · 102 L+13.2wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes65c59.06$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.626553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes36c57.62$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7419541.5%81 W · 114 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes33c56.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7232738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes60c56.66$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1444945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d41…24d7backed Yes65c55.61$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.048942.7%38 W · 51 L-9.0wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf15a…6862backed Yes65c55.43$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8330%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.