AI · resolved market
GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9efa6d64dff3970a2501a23d6e7d5c236f258695fea0f30a7bae474f6ec5fed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $96,364
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,364 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 4c | 9,196$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.17 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0149…d3c5backed Yes | 11c | 6,468$682 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$682.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 4c | 5,961$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.65 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed Yes | 1c | 3,783$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 1c | 3,169$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 8c | 3,146$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.95 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -65%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…3363backed Yes | 2c | 2,437$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…13e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,966$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x876b…1703backed Yes | 7c | 1,914$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…110bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,845$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd6…2c08backed Yes | 24c | 1,833$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…686bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,441$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93a9…0b88backed Yes | 6c | 1,380$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5d…4a5fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,031$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7acc…e1c5backed Yes | 15c | 982.58$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 2c | 939.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a55…b2a2backed Yes | 11c | 912.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0839backed Yes | 13c | 765.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c57…f939backed Yes | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 8c | 714.89$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.59 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 583.14$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ea…a085backed Yes | 3c | 508.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf49…d551backed Yes | 20c | 504.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77e3…46cfbacked Yes | 6c | 473.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 16c | 464.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.06 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba2b…27a2backed Yes | 7c | 387.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd663…6abcbacked Yes | 15c | 372$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 13c | 323.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…70b1backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -63%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cc…cb5dbacked Yes | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…996cbacked Yes | 18c | 278.04$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 72c | 267.1$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 8c | 136.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 80c | 106.42$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x93e2…92b9backed Yes | 19c | 102.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x635c…5a00backed Yes | 17c | 100.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +120.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.