AI · resolved market
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa70d7850dcd6b86d0aec7373f43923a8884aaa4d5e45ac94ef99ecd4c2a84bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $152,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,683
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $152,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 0c | 5,115$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x593a…b9f4backed No | 3c | 3,959$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc28d…1773backed No | 14c | 3,908$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 3,374$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.04 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…0b14backed No | 17c | 2,727$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.45 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 2,660$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.97 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 2,461$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.01 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 10c | 2,424$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.24 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…12c5backed No | 19c | 2,300$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -75.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked No | 15c | 2,073$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.51 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 10c | 1,947$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.64 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 1c | 1,700$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 11c | 1,539$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked No | 5c | 1,381$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,299$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x837c…d774backed No | 2c | 1,187$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ef…1faabacked No | 8c | 1,180$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -88%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf08c…91e9backed No | 10c | 1,084$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.88 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a3…24eabacked No | 15c | 1,067$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7cc…cb5dbacked No | 8c | 955.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.71 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 862.17$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…1501backed No | 2c | 736.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed No | 14c | 707.36$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.98 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 12c | 698.37$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5533…51babacked No | 3c | 693.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 11c | 685.26$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.38 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c8e…2bb0backed No | 5c | 676.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +340.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 5c | 674.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 4c | 619.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 10c | 578.37$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 16c | 561.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 4c | 559.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 4c | 514.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 79 | 0%0 W · 79 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 506.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 13c | 500$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9352…2227backed No | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked No | 9c | 480.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | -9.6wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…9fc8backed No | 11c | 411$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5231…10a2backed No | 3c | 394.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 18c | 383.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa415…6384backed No | 4c | 349.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 4c | 321.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 5c | 307.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 73 | 1.4%1 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b3…d24cbacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 11c | 299.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 14c | 295.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.38 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 10c | 278.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…6ee3backed No | 14c | 248.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 39cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed No | 6c | 239.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 59 | 0%0 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0551…3d39backed No | 5c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 13c | 180.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 10c | 171$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 10c | 171$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…b7f1backed No | 15c | 167$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed No | 13c | 152.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…9188backed No | 11c | 136.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 79c | 131.88$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 75 | 29.3%22 W · 53 L | -11.8wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…31f5backed No | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…7827backed No | 15c | 115.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…4c3abacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc4…1a48backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 14c | 99.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 12c | 96.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 94.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked No | 17c | 84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd80b…504ebacked No | 17c | 69.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.