AI · resolved market
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf262c1abb314e535667d655c8eab84c1a1db54a48f99742de597b241fe38ae1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1923…3b76backed Yes | 1c | 3,698$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7054…82b8backed Yes | 16c | 2,784$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88d9…2dd5backed Yes | 4c | 1,989$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f8…0e46backed No | 75c | 1,065$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.83 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 80c | 974.36$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.87 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…4e68backed Yes | 3c | 903.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b0…7b46backed Yes | 5c | 497.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…aec9backed Yes | 3c | 445.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…ce99backed Yes | 7c | 403.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 4c | 394.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 7c | 385.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.29 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 6c | 299.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 21c | 248$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b40…5682backed Yes | 7c | 214.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d1…a073backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 10c | 189.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39bc…f994backed Yes | 29c | 164.39$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 12c | 131$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 15c | 106.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Yes | 27c | 92.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 77.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 29c | 64.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 125 | 33.6%42 W · 83 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90c8…0fcbbacked Yes | 37c | 61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3606…4e08backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 57c | 56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 67 | 65.7%44 W · 23 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 66c | 50.86$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?this page
- GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 13, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 15, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026?Yes won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 23, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 26, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by May 15, 2026?No won
- GPT-5.6 released by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.