AI · resolved market
Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafdefc6992e8a4756326b8dade6b730c2dfd030a0804e842477d5ecb3d60a68b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 11c | 2,377$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.95 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 18c | 974.51$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.87 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 33c | 614.2$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.17 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…bd55backed No | 74c | 503.6$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.93 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 446.97$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.55 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 421.84$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 27c | 320.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.82 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 302.57$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.31 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 296.48$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 18c | 270.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 265$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.9 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 32c | 260.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.11 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 80c | 249.46$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.27 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked No | 69c | 242.8$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed Yes | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 17c | 183.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…80c0backed No | 69c | 147.13$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked Yes | 12c | 145$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 142.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x70d4…16a1backed No | 71c | 140.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 74c | 140$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12bb…cee9backed Yes | 23c | 132.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 42cpaid | +166.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…76bcbacked Yes | 25c | 123.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 20c | 116.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 10c | 95.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 13c | 86.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 32c | 60.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 41c | 60.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4410…ee34backed Yes | 20c | 60.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 33c | 57.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 78c | 57.02$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.77 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe51b…43ddbacked Yes | 19c | 56.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabc3…dc44backed Yes | 20c | 55.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 36c | 54.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…1054backed Yes | 21c | 51.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 50.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 49.98$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 52c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 54c | 36.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f70…312bbacked No | 68c | 29.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 55c | 21.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 68c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?this page
- Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.