AI · resolved market
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x889551463a35bf8a7334845c146f781145ef6ae73046d12aa037fe19438eef01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56e3…81ccbacked Yes | 77c | 1,686$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.23 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 22c | 1,289$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.64 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 1,006$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.73 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 23c | 905.55$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.84 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 24c | 672.11$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.76 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 19c | 643.36$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed No | 28c | 430$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.05 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 49c | 392.23$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.75 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 10c | 347.82$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 67c | 317.75$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.02 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.92 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 25c | 207.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.36 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73ec…f5bbbacked Yes | 79c | 207$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 49 | 69.4%34 W · 15 L | +9.0wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 35c | 192.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe49e…5e1bbacked No | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 71c | 177.98$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 8c | 177.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 25c | 164.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…863bbacked Yes | 46c | 128.21$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.78 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 67c | 128$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.85 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f4e…7c93backed Yes | 80c | 125.53$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 18c | 121.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 44c | 120.95$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 17c | 116.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb48…be6dbacked Yes | 79c | 113.22$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…cefbbacked No | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 57c | 96.66$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.2 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3f…b72dbacked Yes | 76c | 92.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3d…2ed2backed No | 32c | 78.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 65c | 75.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.81 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 71.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 78c | 67.62$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 66c | 64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.76 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked No | 17c | 62.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 29c | 57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 19c | 55.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca6e…af60backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…cef0backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…56edbacked No | 26c | 39.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 75c | 33.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab46…0ee6backed Yes | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 67c | 30.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba95…3d1abacked Yes | 73c | 20.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb741…9066backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?this page
- Will any other model have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?No won
- Will claude-opus-4-6 have the best AI model on May 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.