AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7b570d0825593f5ab7cdec452769577fb4236a7a5bd7cc18ed6d7bd3c370fe5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,326
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,326 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 37c | 1,431$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.57 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 7c | 676.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 456.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5309…4c9cbacked No | 5c | 447.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +216%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…264ebacked No | 42c | 392$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe116…5602backed Yes | 58c | 371.2$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa676…1c22backed Yes | 69c | 300$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b5…01d6backed Yes | 38c | 276.76$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.36 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 46c | 262.4$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.69 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea3…c850backed No | 37c | 212.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.49 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -42%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb513…f628backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.31 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 44c | 195$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…8944backed Yes | 44c | 181.07$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c99…abafbacked No | 22c | 137.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +118.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7647backed No | 8c | 125.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeade…0e2ebacked Yes | 59c | 104.93$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x608d…3933backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…7343backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e32…29c3backed No | 16c | 87.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…c92cbacked No | 53c | 80$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 23c | 77.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd290…4cb0backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…6ab4backed Yes | 73c | 69.32$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Yes | 41c | 54.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed Yes | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b73…2644backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…626bbacked Yes | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49a1…8c8abacked Yes | 59c | 31.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcea…ae34backed Yes | 46c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +118.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 58c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d57…3c1bbacked Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017e…be52backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?this page
- Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.