World Politics · resolved market
Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7433b1847c5a6b04a64a42cc02082fb87a031a46640130cacf3e644493902cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,703
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,807
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,703 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 14c | 10,000$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.98 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…340bbacked Yes | 79c | 5,042$3,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,967.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 26c | 4,455$1,153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.34 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3c…ea50backed Yes | 0c | 3,400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 44c | 3,325$1,473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,852.53 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 76c | 3,293$2,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.52 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed Yes | 57c | 2,692$1,544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,544.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 5c | 2,660$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed No | 66c | 2,329$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$801.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfa…855cbacked Yes | 34c | 1,899$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b4…3db2backed No | 72c | 1,752$1,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 20c | 1,752$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.73 | 156 | 50%78 W · 78 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 22c | 1,463$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.05 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +6.8wins | +0.19per pick | 28cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad70…4ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,450$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 72 | 16.7%12 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 31c | 1,311$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.96 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed Yes | 32c | 1,311$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 53c | 1,295$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.89 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 54c | 1,095$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.9 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…560ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,086$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 14c | 1,000$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d25…0867backed Yes | 60c | 877.04$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…f6dcbacked Yes | 71c | 788.33$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 30c | 750.2$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.74 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +8.0wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +105%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…5a6ebacked Yes | 27c | 726.94$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41f…7145backed No | 70c | 700$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccb…e033backed Yes | 71c | 698.12$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 34c | 618.54$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.15 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 32c | 615.74$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.46 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 70c | 605.85$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.17 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 54c | 551.48$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.07 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.54per pick | 16cpaid | +410.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 71c | 494.92$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b8…6b6abacked No | 41c | 434.04$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.01 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 35c | 428.82$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.57 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7e23backed Yes | 16c | 419.33$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.09 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97a5…c111backed Yes | 4c | 396.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 16c | 391.7$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.62 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 31c | 384.1$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.53 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 35c | 326.37$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.58 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 25c | 323.27$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…f18cbacked Yes | 22c | 300$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 25c | 300$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 28c | 276.39$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.87 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…d61cbacked Yes | 37c | 270.97$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 30c | 249.07$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed Yes | 10c | 211.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.83 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98af…b216backed No | 16c | 207.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.50per pick | 21cpaid | +213.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa095…6040backed No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +11.7wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +236.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 8c | 190.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976d…f996backed Yes | 70c | 188.77$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 187.08$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…98e0backed Yes | 42c | 184.23$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 25c | 171.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 75c | 134$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…3336backed Yes | 46c | 130.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8287…f4a7backed Yes | 34c | 130$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 46c | 121.95$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 18c | 119.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 109.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 103$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…2ff5backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked No | 26c | 99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddaa…fdecbacked No | 63c | 95.92$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 16c | 92.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…89cdbacked No | 64c | 91.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff5…7447backed No | 77c | 91.06$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a33…13f3backed Yes | 47c | 89.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…2e3cbacked Yes | 69c | 85$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…a38dbacked No | 43c | 83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +221%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 26c | 77.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.63 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 77.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 29c | 76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa8…75a6backed Yes | 43c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x028f…d434backed No | 70c | 71.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 58c | 69.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 40c | 68.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 54c | 66.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 40c | 63.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3cce…c521backed Yes | 19c | 62.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…0c3bbacked Yes | 28c | 62.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde7…ca8bbacked Yes | 59c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb81…4563backed No | 79c | 57.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 76cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 20c | 56.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5281…be82backed No | 53c | 56.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 36c | 53.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed Yes | 51c | 52.96$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa7…c077backed Yes | 52c | 52.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d7…fad8backed Yes | 47c | 52.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 48c | 45.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 31c | 43.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 55c | 43.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b33…3134backed No | 73c | 41.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 15 | 93.3%14 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.32per pick | 62cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1088…b813backed No | 69c | 40.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 136 | 39%53 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370f…c4e4backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d36…52f7backed Yes | 61c | 39.66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc8…5709backed Yes | 53c | 39.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.37per pick | 54cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.57 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57a5…5097backed No | 75c | 37.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?this page
- Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?Yes won
- Will Helen Dalton win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?No won
- Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?No won
- Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.