World Politics · resolved market
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73f9a792fd1996608d93cedda3f182df9015fd6871bea31d7e80cc8fbe9e23c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,546
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,546 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed No | 13c | 13,000$1,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,629.99 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 16c | 4,675$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.55 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…5a6ebacked No | 8c | 4,513$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 11c | 3,325$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.36 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 13c | 2,771$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.55 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5462…eed6backed Yes | 67c | 2,098$1,415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.03 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 8c | 1,956$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.84 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed No | 33c | 1,471$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.12 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…74f5backed No | 33c | 1,471$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes | 79c | 1,265$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.88 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…fc71backed No | 30c | 1,236$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 15c | 640.98$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.71 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 14c | 600.62$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.01 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 7c | 582.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.76 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 19c | 561.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.1 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 7c | 429.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 74c | 354.68$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.42 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 80c | 353.32$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked No | 17c | 350$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed No | 18c | 350$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 13c | 311.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 132 | 25%33 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 13c | 298.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 316 | 35.1%111 W · 205 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…71eebacked Yes | 69c | 295.59$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.63 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 55cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…440cbacked Yes | 77c | 264.7$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 18c | 247$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 15c | 225.66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e8…4241backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 21c | 154.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 274 | 38.3%105 W · 169 L | -32.3wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29b8…08e8backed Yes | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 72cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 17c | 126$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa659…1eaabacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 184 | 45.7%84 W · 100 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 19c | 119.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a45…3ef9backed Yes | 64c | 106.7$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ed…c73abacked No | 19c | 105.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +202.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 78c | 102.53$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 31c | 77.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 79c | 70.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 15c | 68.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 106 | 34.9%37 W · 69 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…f6dcbacked Yes | 77c | 62.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e7…ee81backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 52.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…3dc1backed Yes | 74c | 40.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5d…fbb6backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…da98backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 102 | 61.8%63 W · 39 L | +13.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…0d95backed Yes | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa920…a07abacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…4f6dbacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01db…c427backed Yes | 68c | 24.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1330…ef34backed Yes | 71c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe71d…7359backed Yes | 71c | 22.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…e3f8backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b7…d41bbacked Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…ec11backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e44…3d40backed Yes | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa159…ac8ebacked Yes | 78c | 17.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…f2dcbacked Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69a5…d122backed Yes | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x220c…5888backed Yes | 80c | 13.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?this page
- Will Helen Dalton win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?No won
- Will Michelle Milthorpe win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?No won
- Will Raissa Butkowski win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?No won
- Will Rebecca Scriven win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Australian House of Representatives?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.