Us Politics · resolved market
Will Bill or Hillary publicly testify before congress by Feb 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2da9a6a776dc33b55e94ef80e2713d3180340b9f2c75e77ddfaf4f3df5a846d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,742
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,742 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b6d…cce5backed Yes | 34c | 946.91$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.79 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdea…6951backed Yes | 14c | 901.57$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 73c | 874.93$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.63 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 745.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 122 | 7.4%9 W · 113 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 7c | 413.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6532…11afbacked Yes | 11c | 364.92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a3…a8a5backed Yes | 17c | 351.26$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 3c | 348.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…36bbbacked Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0129…b111backed Yes | 5c | 298.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 19c | 270.98$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.91 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +8.3wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 12c | 230.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab5…4d9ebacked Yes | 12c | 193.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85be…8a1fbacked Yes | 10c | 148.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 147.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.51 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…d8f4backed Yes | 11c | 116.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 22c | 96.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 16c | 77.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23bd…f447backed Yes | 24c | 76.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 25c | 51.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…821fbacked No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.65 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ff…916fbacked No | 80c | 12.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.