Ukraine · resolved market
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc200590aa50aa92aad81a4268ac3dd48a13853210fe3b2d14c5bb5cae6babd9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,564
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,564 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…ea5dbacked Yes | 49c | 1,768$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +143.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 78c | 1,545$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,140$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 22c | 1,024$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.92 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 6c | 772.6$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec06…9178backed No | 32c | 549.19$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +10.2wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 50c | 484.01$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 21cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e10…558cbacked Yes | 68c | 469.03$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 454$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ad…5efebacked Yes | 72c | 355.79$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…9e79backed Yes | 21c | 350$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +369.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…c558backed Yes | 14c | 337.79$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +325.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…8266backed No | 5c | 321.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 40c | 316.63$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.06 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e67…44bcbacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 39c | 295.1$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.89 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd898…aaf1backed No | 5c | 265.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed No | 41c | 222.62$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 8c | 201.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 17c | 197.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 11c | 168.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…55a0backed Yes | 19c | 156.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +161.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe287…5a0fbacked No | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8706…0587backed No | 64c | 141$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x641f…e69cbacked No | 59c | 135.77$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…3ca3backed No | 77c | 130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.87 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dcf…967dbacked No | 39c | 129.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 53c | 114.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.93 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 110.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed No | 28c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe27e…a9d0backed No | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed Yes | 45c | 88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 79.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.87 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed No | 75c | 79.42$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 28c | 76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 21c | 72.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d9…3b92backed No | 79c | 62.9$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65bf…4b91backed Yes | 36c | 49.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked No | 30c | 49.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…d490backed Yes | 48c | 41.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…e266backed No | 37c | 40.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4702…c830backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 29c | 37.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 59c | 35.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856f…2f64backed Yes | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +42%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 50c | 31.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf208…314ebacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…6388backed No | 73c | 27.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…05cbbacked No | 75c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x606e…6b3abacked No | 78c | 26.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.7wins | -0.23per pick | 42cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbb…b278backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f66…9e1ebacked Yes | 48c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 56c | 19.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.