Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff306b0391c1771df7e39ed5e3ae37579ad4b415c55224469197185472992c7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,774
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd8f8…7ddabacked No | 1c | 4,220$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed No | 2c | 1,217$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.77 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53e0…4466backed No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…18fabacked No | 4c | 944.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 4cpaid | +578%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5f…d395backed No | 10c | 828$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed No | 3c | 714.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ef…a05bbacked No | 25c | 670.53$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62b6…e6d9backed No | 13c | 499.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 2c | 475.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 9c | 463.23$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked No | 4c | 458.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 3c | 455.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 9c | 445$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.95 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdc…fceebacked No | 12c | 421.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…d242backed No | 8c | 403.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.20per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 400.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,038 | 9.2%96 W · 942 L | -25.7wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0a00backed No | 10c | 397.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 8c | 361.68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked No | 4c | 361.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 31cpaid | +76%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb997…8734backed No | 5c | 310$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 10c | 309.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…7f4bbacked No | 8c | 305.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed No | 12c | 239.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 10c | 237$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 235.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…05c7backed No | 9c | 231.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce0f…2e31backed No | 4c | 228.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 14c | 198$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…04cabacked Yes | 60c | 181.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked No | 15c | 172.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…a091backed No | 14c | 164.46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…9f3abacked No | 10c | 117.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…c74bbacked No | 11c | 108.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 41c | 43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 75c | 41.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 30 | 80%24 W · 6 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 70c | 28.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbca…45cbbacked Yes | 64c | 22.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.