Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe400cc67318cbb641898ecc81cffd36f093e7da521a5d6c0af82d0c4d4b54e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 1c | 2,080$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 1c | 2,069$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47a5…6834backed Yes | 19c | 1,657$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed Yes | 19c | 837.03$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.09 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed Yes | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 6c | 760.26$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.2 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…6677backed Yes | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…016ebacked Yes | 13c | 591.79$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 4c | 505.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 9c | 492.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 487.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7336…94b8backed Yes | 2c | 472.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 444.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked Yes | 15c | 259.37$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 13c | 255.97$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 17c | 254.02$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.24 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc33…6c65backed Yes | 17c | 195.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…9f1cbacked Yes | 16c | 70.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 45.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 44c | 44.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…27a3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -5.0wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa02c…c186backed Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed No | 78c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 74c | 18.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.