Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf51f703881ea239f5ec37479e60c93a8bd060377df6b56819c4df651c6b76eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 76c | 1,412$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 62c | 999.99$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed No | 24c | 832$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…f545backed No | 24c | 815$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 13c | 754.64$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 497.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…7fb9backed Yes | 48c | 419.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed No | 68c | 396.8$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 376.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 24c | 333.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.47 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…0e0fbacked No | 75c | 294.74$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 11c | 272.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 74c | 272.1$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.35 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 73c | 263$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 76c | 235$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 32c | 225.99$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.04 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed No | 60c | 217.38$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 63c | 167$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9363…52cabacked Yes | 13c | 160.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 11cpaid | +129.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 38c | 140$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.8 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 23c | 134$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 25c | 127.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 9c | 113$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…c74bbacked No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 14c | 99.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 18c | 88.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…7a0ebacked No | 26c | 76.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5a…a3b9backed Yes | 47c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba80…1ea8backed Yes | 30c | 66.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 65.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 35c | 57.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 30c | 34.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 74c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffb…c689backed No | 72c | 27.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc935…74cfbacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.