Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x683c00d1a271b8316d5851fe4b07508ebf230b2aa9e94b4f455dcbb4486b6ab5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x68d3…82e1backed No | 63c | 2,414$1,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.34 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 10c | 2,025$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.71 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…0a84backed Yes | 17c | 1,307$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,038$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.22 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 47c | 969.59$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2e…3fb5backed No | 29c | 809.3$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…fc98backed Yes | 45c | 795.73$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 714.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 19c | 584.49$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$473.29 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa9…9072backed Yes | 42c | 541.42$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.98 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab8…649ebacked Yes | 60c | 500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 487.88$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 1,045 | 34.6%362 W · 683 L | -93.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 15c | 464.72$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.01 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 10c | 460.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb16c…fd85backed Yes | 6c | 419$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 14c | 374.62$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.68 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 76c | 366.29$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 362$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.16 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 78c | 333$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.74 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 322.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 1,024 | 9.1%93 W · 931 L | -25.7wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…c61abacked Yes | 16c | 315.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cca…65cabacked Yes | 6c | 311.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5294…d176backed Yes | 19c | 303.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…60c2backed Yes | 18c | 296.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 288.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 33c | 279.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -6.2wins | -0.18per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 12c | 258.48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 256.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 11c | 253.54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 12c | 243.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes | 35c | 241.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +18%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc986…875dbacked Yes | 74c | 229.79$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ea…32abbacked Yes | 44c | 229.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8979…bcd6backed Yes | 27c | 225.04$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 15c | 222.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb3…6c6fbacked No | 41c | 202.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…d305backed No | 41c | 202.7$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 22c | 200.69$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 25c | 200.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a6…c8d8backed No | 41c | 197.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7c…b757backed No | 41c | 195.55$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6f…6e75backed No | 41c | 195.38$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd093…a20abacked No | 41c | 195.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f05…b8debacked No | 41c | 194.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ae…d12ebacked No | 41c | 194.89$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x811a…ac3cbacked No | 41c | 194.34$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0214…13f3backed No | 41c | 194.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…7796backed No | 41c | 192.54$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20d…2f01backed No | 41c | 192.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…5f8fbacked Yes | 8c | 191.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c0a…cb1dbacked No | 41c | 191.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…7fe5backed No | 41c | 190.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5539…d7aebacked No | 41c | 189.76$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f0…33e6backed Yes | 74c | 189.19$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…0a3abacked Yes | 6c | 186.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 32c | 181.2$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…6031backed Yes | 8c | 169.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…a56dbacked Yes | 40c | 164.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 15c | 151.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 17c | 144.36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.46 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…28f9backed Yes | 7c | 142.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ed…7f4bbacked Yes | 12c | 124.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 39c | 118.91$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 20c | 110.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x829b…4892backed Yes | 20c | 99.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a4b…2b17backed Yes | 38c | 92.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…6cf9backed Yes | 30c | 91.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked No | 71c | 72.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed Yes | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 38c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -5.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -19%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27b7…0704backed Yes | 77c | 65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 25c | 60.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…3a04backed No | 25c | 53.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…2077backed Yes | 78c | 51.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2482…67b1backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…bddebacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…b169backed No | 37c | 35.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9725…46d0backed No | 66c | 34.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba80…1ea8backed Yes | 58c | 34.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 47c | 30.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f4…0336backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…2fc4backed Yes | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 58cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 75c | 26.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +27%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf91f…2d9bbacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d12…4fc0backed Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 54c | 24.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 44c | 23.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3448…2989backed Yes | 75c | 19.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18ad…f4e9backed Yes | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.