Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58cc4219cc5e48ce9594245db8942caed74a131a824ececaa2df6c20ded6319b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,963
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,654
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,963 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1029…9b36backed No | 1c | 1,957$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756e…fe0fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,085$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.37 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…c0a4backed No | 14c | 538.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3dd…7a0ebacked No | 27c | 533.46$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33a…d8f7backed Yes | 73c | 499.98$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24ef…a05bbacked No | 14c | 392.17$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 321.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 10c | 312.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec20…c74bbacked No | 16c | 184.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 8c | 176.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 11c | 162.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3927…3863backed No | 23c | 162.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 10c | 158.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 103 | 5.8%6 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aca…31f2backed Yes | 68c | 147.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…0a00backed No | 22c | 90.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 23c | 87.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 13c | 86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.82 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 18c | 73.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x357d…8c4fbacked No | 23c | 54.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 27cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.5wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59bc…3d81backed Yes | 75c | 20.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.