Commodities · resolved market
Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6867db2de4b7446a36469a846182a3a4324a467d3e9330a689e5fd7a5ab464a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,404
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 1c | 4,064$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 71c | 1,153$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.55 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 12c | 704.89$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.15 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…c855backed No | 25c | 692.59$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…185dbacked No | 17c | 651.88$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2875…94f8backed No | 39c | 589.69$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 5c | 479$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.06 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 10c | 266.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…3eb5backed No | 40c | 225.31$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.12 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6267…7b54backed No | 53c | 207.04$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c7…28aebacked No | 53c | 205.72$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e27…a24cbacked No | 53c | 202.97$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907c…dd5fbacked No | 53c | 202.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec2a…ce7fbacked No | 53c | 200.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e3…5cb5backed No | 53c | 200.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…521ebacked No | 53c | 196.93$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b09…e3d3backed No | 53c | 196.77$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15fb…72ccbacked No | 53c | 196.29$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 44c | 196.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e9…9107backed No | 53c | 195.54$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab82…c156backed No | 53c | 195.13$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44fa…43b6backed No | 53c | 194.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa55…9d17backed No | 53c | 192.87$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fb…5280backed No | 53c | 192.06$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…0b41backed No | 53c | 191.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x232c…2dfebacked No | 53c | 190.58$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x499a…febcbacked No | 53c | 190.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 19c | 189.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.32 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc886…0288backed No | 53c | 188.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ca…76f2backed No | 53c | 187.55$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…0f5bbacked No | 53c | 187.09$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0836…3057backed No | 53c | 184.89$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcefc…347dbacked No | 53c | 184.31$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d32…2154backed No | 53c | 184.17$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1324…eb09backed No | 53c | 183.47$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x619a…ff81backed No | 53c | 181.87$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d0…ceb7backed No | 53c | 179.62$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a34…e0fcbacked No | 53c | 179.14$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fb…6a96backed No | 53c | 178.89$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8748…a5cbbacked No | 53c | 176.55$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f4…8c69backed No | 53c | 174.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9907…ca66backed Yes | 80c | 136.62$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 14c | 134.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 24c | 133.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…0a67backed No | 12c | 124.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 14c | 118.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x905d…2c17backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed No | 47c | 53.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…1da0backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3406…6ce0backed No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Yes | 60c | 49.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb587…5f89backed Yes | 66c | 17.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 69c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 4, 2026?this page
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 1, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 10, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 2, 2026?No won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 5, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 7, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 8, 2026?Yes won
- Will Iran take military action against a Gulf State on April 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.