AI · resolved market
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69f6b8f2fd88d10c16d41c73baf074cd170f836edb39ab6b36c5db9ade8731ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,655
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,655 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x889c…e375backed No | 60c | 833$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 54c | 760.79$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.36 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 48c | 553.78$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.86 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 40c | 436.3$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.78 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 49c | 404.15$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x792b…863bbacked No | 79c | 400.7$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.8 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 281.38$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.99 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 33c | 216.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 288 | 26.7%77 W · 211 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 19c | 193.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 42c | 189.64$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 11c | 166.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…dbdbbacked Yes | 14c | 164$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d26…50b5backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 15c | 149.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed No | 52c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x608e…d69abacked No | 41c | 102.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…aaa1backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe308…309cbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f7…1f33backed Yes | 20c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed Yes | 14c | 78.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 22c | 78.22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.15 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…00aebacked Yes | 19c | 75.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +67.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d1…8ffabacked Yes | 30c | 73.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 79 | 6.3%5 W · 74 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb39…9120backed No | 65c | 64.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 22c | 60.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 27c | 54.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b4…168fbacked No | 47c | 51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +103%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd42…26c0backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 40c | 39.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 35.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea8…9e5fbacked No | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 30c | 34.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed Yes | 44c | 31.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb94…bffebacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5669…0f13backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2004…914abacked No | 57c | 22.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…1e62backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…9e36backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?this page
- Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
- Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.